Category Archives: Uncategorized

Macro Briefing: 1 December 2017

GOP tax bill stalls in Senate on deficit concerns: The Hill
White House expected to replace Secretary of State Tillerson: NY Times
Dow Jones Industrials top 24,000 for first time: LA Times
US consumer spending growth slows in Oct as inflation heats up: Bloomberg 
Personal income growth for US rises more than expected in Oct: RTT
US jobless claims slip for second week in a row: Reuters
Chicago PMI eases to three-month low in Nov: ISM-Chicago
Is Congress about to cut a tax rate that doesn’t need cutting? Yardeni Research

How Much Credit Does Trump Deserve For Economic Growth?

US economic growth was revised up to a 3.3% pace in yesterday second GDP estimate for the third quarter – the strongest quarterly rise in three years. Fourth-quarter estimates look upbeat too, holding out the possibility that output will rise by 3%-plus for three quarters in a row. If the Q4 prediction is correct, the US will post its best cumulative three-month advance since the 2014:Q3-2015:Q1 run.
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Macro Briefing: 30 November 2017

GOP tax bill moves closer to final vote in Senate: Reuters
Trump nominates Marvin Goodfriend to Fed’s board of governors: NY Times
OPEC expected to extend oil production cuts: Reuters
Fed Chair Yellen tells Congress recovery is “increasingly broad based”: Reuters
Q3 GDP growth revised up to 3.3%–highest in 3 years: Bloomberg
Pending homes sales revives 3.5% after post-hurricane bounce-back: CNBC
2-year Treasury yield ticks up to new post-recession high — 1.78%: Treasury.gov

Should Investors Worry About North Korea’s Missile Tests?

North Korea on Wednesday announced that it had launched another missile to test its nuclear-strike capability, which reportedly can now reach the United States. Should we be concerned? Yes, of course. For obvious reasons, every citizen of Planet Earth should be alarmed when a war-mongering government threatens to use nuclear weapons. But as investors, Kim Jong Un’s provocations should be treated as noise.
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Macro Briefing: 29 November 2017

North Korea tests missile that could hit the US: CNN
GOP tax bill clears another hurdle in Senate Budget Committee: RTT
Risk of US gov’t shutdown rising as Trump and Dems bicker: The Hill
Powell tells Congress that case is strengthening for rate hike: Bloomberg
Nat’l Retail Federation: Holiday shopping off to a strong start: MNI
Consumer Confidence Index for US rises to 17-year high: Bloomberg
US home price index rises 6.2% y-o-y in Sep, beating expectations: CNBC
Strong gain for FHFA house price gauge in Q3: Builder
Richmond Fed mfg index rises to 24-year high in Nov: Richmond Fed

Macro Briefing: 28 November 2017

Radio signals hint at upcoming N. Korean nuclear test: Reuters
Two GOP senators could prevent tax bill from a vote: Reuters
Incoming Fed chief expects “rates to rise somewhat further” Bloomberg
Manufacturing growth rate slows in Texas but still “solid”: Dallas Fed
S&P maintains “stable” rating on India’s debt: RTT
Japan’s government: economy remains “in a moderate recovery”: MNI
Bitcoin at $40,000? Hedge fund manager thinks it’s possible: CNBC
Crash risk for Bitcoin is 80%: MarketWatch
How to short Bitcoin: Bloomberg
New home sales surge in October, rising to 10-year high: Reuters

Macro Briefing: 27 November 2017

Indonesia authorities call for 100,000 to evacuate after volcano erupts: Guardian
A possible gov’t shutdown and other challenges confront Congress in Dec: Politico
Holiday shopping season starts strong, driven by strong rise in online sales: RTT
ECB warns that “fake data” threatens economic and financial stability: Reuters
South Africa’s credit rating cut to junk status by S&P: RTT
US growth eases in Nov via PMI data but still running at “solid” pace: IHS Markit
Bitcoin approaching $10,000: Bloomberg
Drilling triggers a surge in earthquakes in Texas and other states: SciAm