After a punishing start to the year, shares in Africa have rebounded and are now the leading performer for the global stock market in 2024, based on a set of ETFs tracking the world’s main regions through yesterday’s close (May 28).
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Macro Briefing: 29 May 2024
* Robust earnings outlook is a key factor for stock market optimism
* IMF lifts China economic forecast to 5%, up from 4.6%
* US consumer confidence index rises in May–first increase in four months
* Low stock market volatility may be underpricing risk
* Texas manufacturing activity weakens slightly in May
* US home prices rise to a new record high in March:
US Economic Data Still Reflect Low Recession Risk — Will It Last?
A broad set of US economic indicators continue to show that the odds are low that an NBER-defined recession has started or is imminent. This profile upends the dark narrative favored in some quarters. There are possible warning signs brewing on the horizon, but the case for expecting trouble is still weak, according to the numbers.
Macro Briefing: 28 May 2024
* US stock market was far more concentrated in the 1950s and 1960s vs today
* Global debt nears 100% of global GDP–highest since the Napoleonic Wars
* European Central Bank signals it’s likely to cut interest rates on June 6
* China is a tough act to match in the West for achieving parity in manufacturing
* Fed’s Kashkari wants ‘many more months’ of good inflation data before rate cut
* US durable goods orders stagnate for 1-year trend through April:
Happy Memorial Day 2024!
“As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words but to live by them.” — John F. Kennedy
Book Bits: 25 May 2024
● Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy
Carola Binder
Interview with author via Marketplace.org
The word “inflation” is everywhere today, and it continues to shape how people feel about the economy. That’s the case despite the pace of inflation retreating from its high of June 2022, when prices were up nearly 9% from the year before, as measured by the consumer price index. Last month, prices were up only 3.4% on an annual basis. While it’s easy to think those feelings are unique, inflation has long been a top concern for Americans, going back to the founding of the country. One key thing that’s changed is how the government has intervened in the movement of prices… In her book, “Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy,” Binder looks back at the long history of politics, inflation and how the government has tried to respond, at times through fiscal policy like price controls, at others with monetary policy.
Fed Funds Futures Market Starts To Flirt With Rate Hike Possibility
The monetary policy outlook has been uncertain, but primarily in terms of the timing of the first rate cut. But that’s starting to change as Fed funds futures price in the possibility of a rate hike. To be clear, the implied probability for a hike is extremely low: no more than 1%. But the fact that market sentiment is pricing in any chance of a hike marks a shift.
Macro Briefing: 24 May 2024
* Crude oil drops to lowest price in over 3 months
* China has a bold plan for its housing crisis, but it’s still not enough
* Sales of new US single-family homes fell more than expected in April
* US jobless claims fell again last week, reaffirming low level of layoffs
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index weakened in April, but…
* US business activity accelerates in May via PMI survey data:
Market Trends Continue To Lean Into A Bullish Signal
The old saw that markets climb a wall of worry is alive and kicking. Although there are plenty of warnings from analysts who see trouble ahead, trend profiles show no fear, via several pairs of ETF proxies for profiling the appetite for risk, based on prices through yesterday’s close (May 22).
Macro Briefing: 23 May 2024
* China launches military drills around Taiwan after inauguration of new president
* Fed minutes show concern over lack of progress on inflation
* Eurozone economic recovery strengthens for third straight month in May
* China may raise tariffs on vehicle imports up to 25%
* Business inflation expectations unchanged at 2.4% in May: Atlanta Fed
* US existing home sales fall for second month in April:
