Ed Yardeni has a great graph of European sovereign yield history. It’s interesting to note that yields have basically rebounded to levels that prevailed before the euro was launched. Of course, some of the rebounding has moved faster and climbed higher in certain countries.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
US Jobless Claims Drop To 390k As Euro Crisis Deepens
The drop of 10,000 in new jobless claims last week to a seasonally adjusted 390,000 provides a bit of a shock absorber for sentiment in the wake of the new wave of euro turmoil via Italy. Yes, even last week’s numbers may be out of date as the Continent’s woes worsen. But for the moment, at least, we know that the labor market was continuing to heal on the margins, as suggested by other metrics, such as the Monster Employment Index or the payrolls report for October. The progress has been slow, but at least there’s been some progress. The optimistic view with the number du jour is that the tepid installment of the latest virtuous cycle is spilling over into November. The big mystery is whether the tenuous revival will survive the new bout of euro darkness? Questions, questions, always fresh questions.
The Italy Factor Gets Ugly
Is the euro Toast? Maybe not, but if you thought the currency was under pressure before, well, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Will Slowing Income Growth Spoil The Party?
Job openings on the last business day of September rose to 3.4 million, the Labor Department reports. That’s up from 3.1 million in August. Here’s one more statistic for thinking that the U.S. economy continues to grow. Coupled with moderately positive job creation in the private sector for October,, one might reason that the recession risk is falling. The higher “churn” rate in the job market echoes the sentiment, Catherine Rampell explains. But let’s not forget that there are still plenty of risks lurking, including the disconnect in consumer spending and income.
Predicting GDP With ARIMA Forecasts
Is the U.S. economy headed for a new recession? The risk is clearly elevated these days, in part because the euro crisis rolls on. The sluggish growth rate in the U.S. isn’t helping either. But with ongoing job growth, albeit at a slow rate, it’s not yet clear that we’ve reached a tipping point. Given all the mixed signals, however, forecasting is unusually tough at the moment. It’s never easy, of course, but it’s always necessary just the same. But how to proceed? The possibilities are endless, but one useful way to begin is with so-called autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA). It sounds rather intimidating, but the basic calculation is straightforward and it’s easily performed in a spreadsheet, which helps explain why ARIMA models are so popular in econometrics. A more compelling reason for this technique’s widespread use: a number of studies report that ARIMA models have a history of making relatively accurate forecasts compared with the more sophisticated competition.
Looking For Bubbles
Bubble talk is a hardy perennial. The latest installment comes in a recent column by Jason Zweig, who provocatively inquires: “Can you spot a bubble?”
Research Review | 11.7.2011 | Asset Allocation
Strategic Allocation to Premiums in the Equity Market
David Blitz (Robeco Asset Management) | Oct 2011
Investors tend to focus on harvesting the risk premiums offered by traditional asset classes when making their strategic investment decisions. Some recent papers, however, argue that investors should also consider various other premiums for possible inclusion in the strategic asset allocation. Examples of such premiums that have been documented for the equity market are the size, value, momentum and low-volatility effects. In this paper we show that the theoretically optimal strategic allocation to these premiums is sizable, even when using highly conservative assumptions regarding their future expected magnitudes. We also discuss the pros and cons of two ways of obtaining the implied exposures in practice, specifically passively managed index funds versus actively managed quant funds.
Book Bits For Saturday: 11.5.2011
● Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint: Crushed by Credit and Deceived by Debt — How to Revive the Global Economy
By Tony Crescenzi
Summary via publisher, FT Press
Since the 1930s, governments have overcome recessions by borrowing and spending to temporarily replace lost consumer and business spending. What happens when they can’t do it anymore? In Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint, PIMCO Executive VP Tony Crescenzi offers a sobering tour of today’s unprecedented global sovereign debt crisis. Crescenzi shows how exhausted national balance sheets have stripped policymakers of their ability to bolster growth… how investors are finding it increasingly difficult to navigate debt-ridden markets… how increased spending intended to cure the financial crisis is instead worsening it. He dissects each scenario for the future, and reveals the crisis’ profound long-term implications for governments, investors, and the global economy.
Sluggish Job Growth Prevails… Again
There’s (relatively) good news and (more of the same) bad news in today’s employment report. First the good news, such as it is. Private-sector job creation continues to chug along at a mediocre pace. Last month witnessed a net gain of 104,000 for private nonfarm payrolls, the Labor Department reports. That’s nothing to get excited about, but it’s obviously better than a loss and so it offers yet another bit of statistical evidence for thinking that the economy isn’t poised to slip into a new recession. There’s also encouraging news in the latest batch of revisions to previous payroll reports. In particular, September’s initial estimate of a 137,000 net rise in private payrolls has been substantially revised higher to 191,000. Even August’s originally dismal rise has been revised higher to a slightly less dismal gain of 42,000 vs. the earlier 30,000 advance.
One Small Cut In Interest Rates, One Giant Step For Macro Perspective
The newly installed head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, broke with his predecessor and cut the benchmark interest rate to 1.25% from 1.5%. In one fell swoop Jean-Claude Trichet’s misguided austerity policy has evaporated. And not a moment too soon, given the signs of rising recession risk for the Continent. But there’s more to the story than just another rate cut.