Oil demand will soon outpace oil supply, warned Matthew Simmons in a July 1 talk to the American Association of Professional Landmen, an oil and gas trade group. Simmons, an outspoken voice warning of looming energy challenges, is also chairman of Simmons & Co., an energy-focused investment bank in Houston. “Demand has become a runaway train,” he warned, echoing a message in his recently published book Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
RESEARCH ROOM UPDATE
Is inflation targeting worth the effort? It’s a topical question considering that a fan of the mechanical system for managing a nation’s money supply is reportedly on the short list of potential successors to Alan Greenspan, who retires in January as chairman on the board of governors at the Fed. Meanwhile, a new piece from the St. Louis Fed weighs in on the subject of inflation targeting by way of an essay titled “The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy,” which today joins the other tenants in the Research Room.
THE NEW NEW SENTIMENT SHUFFLE
The bond market today found more incentive to sell the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note. That includes fresh admonitions from Morgan Stanley’s Richard Berner, the firm’s chief U.S. economist, to “buy TIPS, sell bonds.”
INFLATION BEATS A HASTY RETREAT
Inflation may or may not be dead as a long-term threat, but after digesting this week’s serving of price reports for June it’s harder to lose any sleep over this erstwhile enemy of central banks everywhere.
IRAQ’S FUTURE IS STILL THE WEST’S FUTURE WHEN IT COMES TO OIL
The bombings in Iraq go on and on, but the United States’ resolve to go the distance remains unwavering, the President tells us. But is it reasonable to assume that the White House will keep the troops in Iraq through the end of Bush’s term, which ends in January 2008? If so, will the U.S. military stay in Iraq on through the next administration? Or is there a chance that America will conclude that its presence should end sooner rather than later?
JULY SURPRISE
Tax revenues are rolling in faster than some had expected, but if you thought that would trigger widespread optimism on what it says about the underlying state of economic health, think again.
JUGGLING THE CONUNDRUM
Steady as she goes at the European Central Bank. Ditto for the Bank of England. And now, this morning, we learn that the Bank of Canada is saying no to raising interest rates too. Do we smell a trend here?
RELATIVELY SPEAKING
Oil, gasoline and virtually every other fuel price posts strong gains in the 21st century. But if you thought that would have an impact on the energy sector’s relative market-cap ranking in the S&P 500, you’ve been hornswoggled by Mr. Market.
ANOTHER WEEK, ANOTHER SPLIT DECISION
The European Central Bank yesterday joined the bond market in reasserting the belief that the path of least resistance for the price of money, if not lower is at least sideways. The ECB kept its key interest rate at 2% yesterday, despite predictions by some pundits that monetary easing was imminent on the Continent. Standing pat at the ECB comes in the wake of the 25-basis-point hike in fed funds to 3.25% on June 30.
VOLATILITY IN A VACUUM
Terrorism reared its ugly head again today, this time in London, the scene of a series of explosions this morning. In addition to more immediate concerns of safety, mourning the dead and caring for the injured, the lesser issues of what it means for the global economy and the world’s capital markets inevitably come seeping back into the minds of traders.