Macro Briefing: 1 December 2025

US consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online for the Black Friday shopping spree. The sales level marks a 9.1% rise from last year, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks e-commerce. Spending increased despite weak consumer sentiment, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll.

China’s factory activity edged higher in November but remained stuck in contraction for the eighth consecutive month, while services weakened as the boost from earlier holidays faded, according to official data released Sunday. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 49.2, up 0.2 points from October, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5, down 0.6 points from October, while the composite PMI output index eased to 49.7, indicating a slight pullback in both manufacturing and services activities.

Oil prices rose 2% on Monday as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted exports after a major drone attack and US-Venezuela tensions raised concerns about supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026.

Two of China’s private data agencies withheld monthly home sales figures at the government’s request. The delayed data disclosure came after China Vanke Co. — long considered one of the sector’s healthier firms — sought to postpone repayment on a local bond for the first time last week.

Analysis by Goldman Sachs finds that lay-off announcements tend to run about two months ahead of actual jobless claims, The Economist reports. The bank estimates the odds of a half-a-percentage-point rise in the jobless rate over the next six months at as high as 25%, up from 10% in the spring.

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