The risk of a US recession ticked up in August, but remains well below a tipping point that signals a high probability of a downturn, according to a business-cycle index published by the Richmond Fed. The SOS Recession Indicator rose to 0.062 last month, which remains substantially under the 0.2 trigger point that equates with elevated recession risk.
Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook declared her Atlanta property as a “vacation home” a listing that appears to undercut the Trump administration’s allegations of mortgage fraud. Lawyers for Cook cited the newly released documents to a panel of judges as a reason to allow her to continue serving on the Fed.
China’s economic slowdown deepened in August, according to several indicators. Retail spending and factory output slowed, official reports revealed.
Home prices in China fell in August, extending a weak trend and weighing on economic growth. Out of 70 cities surveyed, 57 reported month-on-month declines, and 65 recorded year-on-year falls.
Penske Media Corporation has become the first major US publisher to sue Google over its AI summaries. “The owner of Rolling Stone, Billboard and Variety sued Google on Friday, alleging the technology giant’s AI summaries use its journalism without consent and reduce traffic to its websites,” CNN reports.
A simple test of adding gold and/or bitcoin to a stock and bond portfolio highlights key differences in risk and reward associated with these alternative assets, according to analysis by TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager. A backtest that adds bitcoin to a stock/bond mix raised performance sharply, but at a cost of dramatically higher portfolio risk. Gold, by contrast, does a better job of lowering portfolio risk, but only modestly lifts overall portfolio return.
The forms Lisa Cook SIGNED and established the bank’s contractual obligation to give her a lower rate for a primary residence don’t matter? Huh. Good to know. It is the preliminary rate estimates from the bank that matter. Not the SIGNED ones. Duh.
Also, no misinformation to see here people. Move along.
From James Fishback:
Here’s how Lisa Cook’s “loan estimate” ruse likely happened
1. Cook found an old “loan estimate” from the bank. Important: a loan estimate is not signed, sworn, or binding. It’s just a draft of what a loan might look like.
2. Leak it “on background” – Instead of filing it with the court under oath (where lying has consequences), they quietly shared it with friendly reporters (NBC, Reuters, AP). “On background” means the reporter can use the document but not directly name the source or publish the document itself.
3. They released it the day before her court deadline so it could shape headlines and public opinion before judges reviewed official filings.
4. Fake News outlets like NBC News ran stories framing the loan estimate as “exonerating evidence.” Readers saw a headline suggesting she was “exonerated,” even though *nothing* was filed in court.
5. In her reply brief (pg 15), Cook’s team pointed to those very press stories as “independent corroboration.” This is classic bootstrapping: you leak a document, then cite the media’s reporting on your own leak as if it’s third-party proof.
6. By keeping the loan estimate out of the official court record, Cook avoided signing an affidavit under penalty of perjury. If it turned out false or misleading, there’s no criminal liability—just a PR boost.
We’re dealing with a full-blown criminal at this point. Grateful that President Trump removed her. We can’t have deceitful miscreants setting interest rates and policing our banks. She is as dishonest as they come