US jobless claims fell for a sixth straight week, dropping to a 3-month low and signaling labor market strength. “The weekly jobless claims give Fed officials no cover whatsoever if they are seriously thinking of cutting interest rates at next week’s meeting,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

US economic activity strengthened again in June, according to the Chicago Nat’l Activity Index. The monthly index rose to its highest level in three months, although the current reading still reflects a below-trend pace of activity.

Sales of new homes edged higher in June, but fell 6.6% vs. the year-ago level. Inventory continued to rise: the seasonally adjusted 511,000 supply of new homes for sale rose 8.5% from a year earlier.

US companies are shouldering most of the bill for higher tariffs. “US firms are still footing most of the tariff bill, having yet to pass more than a fraction of the tariff cost on to consumers,” said Preston Caldwell, chief US economist at Morningstar.

Economists expect consumer prices to rise through end of the year due to tariffs, reports Vox. “By the time we get to the end of August, you’ll kind of look back and it will appear that directionally, the people who said tariffs would increase prices over the summer were right,” said Daniel Hornung, a senior fellow at MIT and former deputy director of the National Economic Council under the Biden administration.

US economic activity “accelerates” in July, according to PMI survey data. “The flash PMI data indicated that the US economy grew at a sharply increased rate at the start of the third quarter, consistent with the economy expanding at a 2.3% annualized rate,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “That represents a marked improvement on the 1.3% rate signaled by the survey for the second quarter.”