In the search for clues on the outlook for monetary policy, investors and analysts are focused on three questions. When will the Fed slow its rate hikes? When will the Fed pause rate hikes? And when will the central bank pivot and start cutting rates? Powell gave somewhat encouraging remarks in one out of three in yesterday’s press conference.
Macro Briefing: 3 November 2022
* North Korea fires ICMB but it failed in mid-flight, says South Korean military.
* Fed hikes target rate by 75 basis point and signals more to come
* Wells Fargo mortgage staff prepares for layoffs as lending activity slides
* China economic activity continues to slide in October in “broad-based slowdown”
* Global manufacturing output falls again in October
* Services sector is bright spot for US labor market in October
* US companies accelerate hiring in October to three-month high:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 November 2022
Expected long-run returns for most of the major asset classes continue to look relatively attractive after this year’s market declines, based on updates of models run by CapitalSpectator.com. In turn, a broad measure of risk assets points to a performance premium in the future vs. recent history.
Macro Briefing: 2 November 2022
* North and South Korea engage in missile launches aimed at each other’s coasts
* Brazil’s Bolsonaro breaks silence, allows transfer of power to proceed
* Netanyahu poised for comeback as Israel prime minister, exit polls show
* Eurozone factory downturn accelerates amid record inflation
* Fed expected to announce another 75-basis-points rate hike today
* China orders Covid lockdown around iPhone factory in Zhengzhou
* US job openings rebound in September despite Fed efforts to cool labor market
* Construction spending in US rebounds in September, surprising analysts
* US manufacturing activity is virtually stagnant in October via ISM Mfg Index:
Major Asset Classes | October 2022 | Performance Review
Most markets around the world rebounded in October, reversing some of the losses that have dominated the major asset classes for much of the year to date, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 1 November 2022
* Brazil President Bolsonaro remains silent after election loss
* Delta Air Lines pilots vote to authorize a strike
* The worst is yet to come for housing market, says homebuilders
* China manufacturing activity contracts for third month in October
* China workers flee Foxconn’s giant iPhone plant amid Covid outbreak
* US Circuit Court blocks sale of Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House
* Texas manufacturing output grows but new orders slide and outlook worsens
* Chicago manufacturing PMI weakens further in October
* US 10-year Treasury yield near 14-year high ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision:
Most Global Markets Extend Rebound For Second Week
For a second week in a row, the major asset classes rallied, with a notable exception: stocks in emerging markets. Otherwise, risk assets continued to recover in the trading week through Friday, Oct. 28, based on a set of ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 31 October 2022
* Lula reclaims Brazil’s presidency and beats Bolsonaro in narrow victory
* Eurozone inflation reaches new record high as economy slows in Q3
* Russia suspends grain deal that allowed Ukraine exports
* Goldman Sachs expects Fed rate hikes will peak at 5% in March
* China manufacturing and services sectors contract in October
* No end in sight for China zero-Covid policy
* Germany’s economic link to China in focus as chancellor heads to Beijing
* US consumer spending rose in September despite inflation’s bite
* Pending home sales in US fell fell further than expected in September:
Book Bits: 29 October 2022
Susan L. Shirk
Quote from author via Time.com
“In the past, everyone took for granted that the Chinese leadership is going to make the adjustments it needs to make to keep its economy humming,” says Susan Shirk, a Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs under Bill Clinton, and author of Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise. “But now they’re overreaching and harming their own economic development.”
US Soft Landing Possible, Says Former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder
Can the Federal Reserve tame inflation with more rate hikes without pushing the US into recession? It’s the critical macro question these days and everyone has an opinion, including a former vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Alan Blinder, who says threading this policy needle is possible.