Rob Verchick
Summary via publisher (Columbia U. Press)
One morning in Miami Beach, an unexpected guest showed up in a luxury condominium complex’s parking garage: an octopus. The image quickly went viral. But the octopus—and the combination of infrastructure quirks and climate impacts that left it stranded—is more than a funny meme. It’s a potent symbol of the disruptions that a changing climate has already brought to our doorsteps and the ways we will have to adjust. Rob Verchick examines how we can manage the risks that we can no longer avoid, laying out our options as we face climate breakdown. Although reducing carbon dioxide emissions is essential, we need to adapt to address the damage we have already caused. Verchick explores what resilience looks like on the ground, from early humans on the savannas to today’s shop owners and city planners.
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 14 April 2023
The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the days of a large premium look numbered. As evidence mounts that inflation continues to ease, money supply remains sharply negative on a rolling one-year basis and the economy faces stronger headwinds, the odds are rising that the yawning gap between the current 10-year yield and our fair-value estimate will narrow.
Macro Briefing: 14 April 2023
* S&P 500 earnings for Q1 fell nearly 7%, according to estimates by FactSet
* Banks are now losing money on mortgages after sharp rise in interest rates
* China oil imports surge to highest level in nearly 3 years
* Senate Leader Schumer seeks regulations on artificial intelligence technology
* US jobless claims rose for first time in three weeks
* US wholesale prices fell in March, another sign of easing inflationary pressure:
US Consumer Inflation Trend Continues To Ease Through March
The Consumer Price Index eased more than expected in March, providing fresh evidence that pricing pressure has peaked and inflation remains on track to decelerate further in the months ahead. The core reading of CPI posted a firmer reading, but this looks like an outlier when viewed in context with a range of alternative inflation metrics.
Macro Briefing: 13 April 2023
* Rate hikes still needed, says San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
* Fed expects a recession later this year, according minutes for March meeting
* US-Saudi oil pact breaking down as Russia influence in OPEC rises
* UK economy stagnates in February via GDP data
* China’s exports unexpectedly surge in March
* All but biggest banks face tough quarter for earnings reports
* Threat of war a factor for Buffett’s sale of shares in chipmaker giant TSMC
* US headline consumer inflation eases in March, but core trend ticks up:
Profiling Volatility Regimes For The US 10-Year Treasury Yield
Last month we looked at how stock market volatility ebbs and flows through time. Let’s pick up this thread and do the same for the bond market, based on the 10-year US Treasury yield.
Macro Briefing: 12 April 2023
* IMF warns of slowing growth and elevated recession risk
* France’s Macron’s comments on Taiwan bring sharp criticism in West
* Treasury Secretary says she’s “not anticipating a downturn” for US economy
* Fed officials divided over whether to hike rates again
* Fed rate hikes will end next month, predicts former Pimco chief economist
* EPA proposes rules that promote sales of electric vehicles
* Can AI beat the market? Don’t hold your breath
* US small business sentiment eased in March, holding below long-run average
* Tech stocks (XLK) are sharply outperforming broad market (SPY) this year:
US GDP Growth Nowcast Edges Higher For Upcoming Q1 Report
Recession forecasts for the US continue to swirl, but the risk still looks low from the perspective of expectations for the first-quarter GDP report that’s scheduled for April 27, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish it’s preliminary report.
Macro Briefing: 11 April 2023
* IMF predicts interest rates will fall to pre-Covid levels
* Analysts say corporate America is in an earnings recession
* Consumer inflation expectations rise for first time in months
* Consumers say credit is getting harder to come by, Fed survey shows
* Falling money supplies signal elevated recession risk for US, UK and Eurozone
* China consumer inflation slows to softest pace since September 2021
* Eurozone retail sales fell in February, reversing January’s gain
* Bitcoin rallies above $30k for first time since June
* Will bank lending slow after recent turmoil in the industry?
* US real Treasury yields hold above 1%–highest since 2010:
Corporate Bonds Ex-US Led Market Gainers Last Week
Bonds issued by companies outside the US rose for a fifth straight week, securing the strongest performance for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs in last week’s trading.