The US slide in exports this year has expanded to to most American ports, according to trade tracker Vizion. The consultancy analyzed US export container bookings for the 5-week period before President Donald Trump’s tariffs began and the 5 weeks after the tariffs took effect. “We haven’t seen anything like this since the disruptions of summer 2020,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion. “That means goods expected to arrive in the next six to eight weeks simply won’t. With tariffs driving costs higher, small businesses are pausing orders. Products that once moved reliably are now twice as expensive, forcing importers into tough decisions.”

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The year started on a positive note as markets extended 2024’s rally. But as details of the dramatic shift in US tariff policy emerged, sentiment took a hit as 2025 unfolded. The defensive stance persists, based on a set of ETF pairs that map the crowd’s appetite for risk via prices through Monday (May 5).

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The US services sector posted a stronger growth rate in April, according to the survey-based ISM Services PMI. The indicator edged up to 51.6, reflecting a modest pace of growth by printing above the neutral 50 mark. But in a worrisome sign for the inflation outlook, the prices paid component of the survey rose to a 27-month high.

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President Trump said he wouldn’t fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but the pressure for rate cuts continues. The market, however, is still betting that the central bank will stand firm and leave its target rate steady at Wednesday’s policy announcement.

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The US unemployment rate was steady in April at 4.2% and nonfarm payrolls rose increased a seasonally adjusted 177,000 last month. “We can push recession concerns to another month. Job numbers remain very strong, suggesting there was an impressive degree of resilience in the economy in play before the tariff shock,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “The economy will weaken in the coming months but, with this underlying momentum, the U.S. has a decent chance of averting recession if it can step back from the tariff brink in time.”

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● The Singularity Paradox: Bridging the Gap Between Humanity and AI
Anders Indset and Florian Neukart
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
The Singularity Paradox: Bridging the Gap Between Humanity and AI is a comprehensive exploration of how the fusion of biology, neuroscience, and artificial intelligence can lead to the creation of Artificial Human Intelligence (AHI) as a conscious response to the unconscious development of superintelligence. Singularity highlights the tension between the boundless possibilities of technological advancement and the potential loss of human autonomy, control, and relevance. AHI may become essential in navigating this singularity and preventing the severe consequences that could arise. The convergence of humanity and technology, shedding light on the ethical, social, and scientific implications of this transformation is taken on with a fresh perspective.

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The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher in April, inching up to an annualized 7.0% from the previous month’s 6.9%. The analysis is based on three models (defined below) for GMI, a global benchmark that’s based on a market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes (excluding cash).

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US manufacturing activity contracted for a second month in April, according to the ISM Manufacturing Index, a survey-based profile of the sector. The weak reading indicates that the brief recovery, following a 26-month run of contraction, has faded. “Demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, conditions that are not considered positive for economic growth,” said Institute for Supply Management chair Timothy Fiore said in a press release.

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Foreign markets continued to rally in March, leading returns for the major asset classes and extending a bullish trend for foreign assets in 2025, based on a set of ETFs. US stocks, US junk bonds and US property shares, by contrast, continued to lose ground. The big loser in March: commodities, which posted an unusually steep decline.

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US economic activity contracted in the first quarter, according to the government’s preliminary estimate of GDP for the January-through-March period. A key factor in the 0.3% decline was a surge of imports, which subtract from growth for calculating GDP. Imports reduced the headline pace of growth by nearly 5 percentage points, the biggest negative impact on record for this category (since 1947). “Maybe some of this negativity is due to a rush to bring in imports before the tariffs go up, but there is simply no way for policy advisors to sugar-coat this. Growth has simply vanished,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds.

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