Macro Briefing: 5 October 2021

* Sen. Majority Leader Schumer schedules debt-ceiling vote for Wednesday
* Sen. Minority Leader McConnell warns he won’t cooperate on raising debt ceiling
* Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan’s air defence zone for fourth straight day
* White House warns China over its provocations against Taiwan
* New signs of stress emerge in China’s property market
* Oil near 3-year highs after OPEC+ rejects plan for big production increase
* US factory orders rose for a fourth straight month in August:

Macro Briefing: 4 October 2021

* Dems will continue to struggle this week over fraying unity on Biden agenda
* Broader signs of inflation pressures starting to emerge
* Japan elects new prime minister: Fumio Kishida
* US auto sales plunged over past 3 months due to chip shortages
* Huge leak of offshore data shows tax dodges of rich and powerful
* China raises pressure on Taiwan with surge of provocative military flights
* Trading halted in shares of Evergrande, the troubled property developer in China
* US 60/40 stocks/bonds benchmark suffered rare loss in September
* Key inflation metric monitored by Fed rose to 30-year high in August
* ISM Mfg Index rose in September, signaling strongest growth since May
* US consumer spending rebounded sharply in August:

Book Bits: 2 October 2021

Wireless Wars: China’s Dangerous Domination of 5G and How We’re Fighting Back
Jonathan Pelson
Summary via publisher (BenBella Books)
As the world rolls out transformational 5G services, it has become increasingly clear that China may be able to disrupt—or even access—the wireless networks that carry our medical, financial, and even military communications. This insider story from a telecommunications veteran uncovers how we got into this mess—and how to change the outcome. In Wireless Wars: China’s Dangerous Domination of 5G and How We’re Fighting Back, author Jon Pelson explains how America invented cellular technology, taught China how to make the gear, and then handed them the market. Pelson shares never-before-told stories from the executives and scientists who built the industry and describes how China undercut and destroyed competing equipment makers, freeing themselves to export their nation’s network gear—and their surveillance state. He also reveals China’s successful program to purchase the support of the world’s leading political, business, and military figures in their effort to control rival nations’ networks.

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Macro Briefing: 1 October 2021

* House Speaker Pelosi delays vote on infrastructure spending
* Biden signs bill that averts a government shutdown
* Fed’s Powell sees “difficult trade-off” for policy if inflation doesn’t moderate
* North Korea continues missile test-firings
* Eurozone inflation surged to 13-year high in September
* US GDP growth revised up slightly for second quarter
* Chicago PMI dipped to 7-month low in September
* US jobless claims continued rising last week, reaching highest since early August:

Macro Briefing: 30 September 2021

* Senate Majority Leader Schumer announces deal to avert government shutdown
* Democrats are now the main threat to Biden’s economic agenda
* Central bankers expect supply-chain issues to prolong higher inflation
* China’s mfg sector contracted slightly in September, official data show
* An alternative mfg survey for China reports the sector stabilized in Sep
* UK economic growth revised sharply higher for Q2
* Family offices are increasingly considering crypto investments
* US pending home sales surged in August, surprising forecasters
* US 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, reaching new 3-month high:

The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 29 September 2021

Blending bonds and stocks is a hardy perennial for asset allocation, primarily because of the negative return correlation between the two asset classes that’s prevailed in years past. That is, when stock prices fall (rise), bond prices rise (fall). But this negative correlation isn’t written in stone and fluctuates through time. Recent history suggests it’s fluctuating its way into positive terrain. If so, the diversification benefits of a stock/bond portfolio will fade and possibly evaporate altogether, depending on how positive the return correlation becomes and how long it lasts.

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