Adam Tooze
Review via Reuters
Confronting the crisis forced governments to discard old orthodoxies, many of which were already under attack. Politicians who had previously sought to rein in public spending deployed vast sums to support citizens stuck at home and businesses which had been forced to close. Central banks hoovered up government bonds and backstopped a range of financial markets. Commitments to free trade and private enterprise were discarded in the rush to secure face masks and vaccines, and support crisis-struck industries.
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 3 September 2021
- Solid gains lift most global markets this week
- Another week of strong gains for our portfolio strategy benchmarks
Major Asset Classes | August 2021 | Risk Profile
Risk-adjusted performance continued to rise in August for the Global Market Index (GMI), an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash). GMI’s Sharpe ratio increased for a sixth straight month, reaching 0.93 – the highest in over two years.
Macro Briefing: 3 September 2021
* Millions of jobless Americans are about to lose federal unemployment benefits
* Japan’s prime minister announces he’ll quit after a year in office
* Looking for clues for predicting how the Taliban will govern Afghanistan
* China Services PMI: sector contracted in August for first time since April 2020
* US jobless claims remained strong in August
* GM to halt most production at North American plants due to chip shortage
* One of biggest hedge funds agrees to pay up to $7 billion to settle tax dispute
* US rent inflation will accelerate, predict two Fed economists predict:
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 September 2021
The expected risk premium for the Global Market (GMI) ticked up in August, reaching an annualized 6.1%, slightly above the previous month’s estimate. That’s a relatively elevated level compared with recent history. The forecast relates to the long-run outlook for GMI’s return over the “risk-free” rate, which is based on the yield for a 3-month Treasury bill.
Macro Briefing: 2 September 2021
* Hurricane Ida’s remnants bring widespread flooding to US Northeast
* Global mfg growth slipped to six-month low in August via PMI survey data
* US construction spending ticked up to 9.0% annual gain, a pandemic high
* Will ending eviction protections harm the economic recovery?
* The outlook for merger arb trades looks encouraging, predicts GMO
* US manufacturing posts slightly stronger growth in August
* US private payrolls grew faster in August, but less than forecast via ADP data:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 1 September 2021
Is it risk-on again for emerging markets? It’s an intriguing question that resonates a bit more these days, courtesy of rallies in several of the leading EM nations.
Major Asset Classes | August 2021 | Performance Review
The winning streak for American shares rolled on in August. US stocks rose for a seventh straight month and posted the strongest gain for the major asset classes.
Macro Briefing: 1 September 2021
* Assessing the shift in global power relations in wake of US exit from Afghanistan
* China mfg sector posts slight decline in Aug–first drop in 1-1/2 years
* OPEC+ lifts forecast for oil demand in 2022
* India’s economy rebounded at record rate in second quarter
* German retail sales fell far more than expected in July
* US home prices post record gain in June
* Chicago PMI pulls back to 2-month low in Aug, but still reflects strong growth
* Is the stock market immune to bad news?
* US Consumer Confidence Index fell in August to six-month low:
US Q3 GDP Estimates Continue To Indicate Solid Growth
The resurgence in coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and fatalities in the US hasn’t taken a bite out of third-quarter growth estimates, at least not yet.