Late last month I wondered if this year’s strong start for energy stocks would continue? The answer is a resounding “yes,” at least so far through yesterday’s close (Feb. 18).
Macro Briefing: 19 February 2021
* Millions left without safe drinking water in Texas after winter storm
* Texas’ storm cut 40% of US oil output
* Biden plans to tell G7 today to work together on China challenge
* White House ready for talks with Iran to discuss return to 2015 nuclear deal
* Fed governor Lael Brainard: climate change affecting economy
* Treasury Secretary Yellen reaffirms need for large stimulus package
* Eurozone economy contracted for fourth straight month in February
* Manufacturing revival threatened by global chip shortage
* Bitcoin market cap approaches $1 trillion
* Lumber prices briefly topped $1,000 per 1,000 board feet, a record high
* US jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week, reaching a one-month high
* US housing starts eased in January but new building permits surged:
Modeling The ETF Opportunity Set: Part I
When the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, expectations were modest. The competition, after all, was the elephant in the room and had roughly a century to establish itself and dominate the industry. Nearly three decades later, open-end mutual funds still hold more assets than ETFs, but the latter long ago became a growth industry while mutual funds increasingly appear to be a sunset industry.
Macro Briefing: 18 February 2021
* Winter weather continues to wreak havoc in Texas
* Fed officials last month discussed outlook for higher inflation
* US interest rates will continue to rise, analysts predict
* US economy could lose $1 trillion if Biden pursues sharp separation from China
* Life expectancy in US fell in first half of 2020 due to pandemic
* US jobless claims expected to ease in today’s report but remain high
* US producer prices increased the most in January since 2009
* Homebuilder sentiment in US remains firmly bullish in February
* Industrial output in US increased more than expected in January
* US retail sales surged in January, rising for first time in 4 months:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 17 Feb 2021
In this issue:
- Gold slides to 3-month low
- Energy stocks continue to rally as Goldman turns bullish on the sector
- Another record high for ishares MSCI China ETF (MCHI)
Rising Interest Rates Create Headwinds For Bonds In 2021
Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked, Warren Buffett famously quipped. A real-time financial example is unfolding in the bond this year, especially after yesterday’s jump in Treasury yields.
Macro Briefing: 17 February 2021
* Biden administration will extend ban on home foreclosures
* Huge protests in Mynamar continue in reaction to military coup
* US retail sales expected to rebound in today’s January udpate
* Electricity prices surge in Texas as deep freeze roils state
* China topped US in 2020 as Europe’s biggest trading partner
* Bitcoin reaches $51,000, a new record
* Widespread business disruption across US in wake of winter storm
* Does extreme weather provide opportunity for infrastructure upgrade?
* Manufacturing activity in New York state expanded in February at a quicker pace
* 10-year Treasury yield rises to 1.30%, near one-year high:
US GDP Estimates Point To Ongoing Economic Expansion in Q1
Early projections for US economic output in the first quarter point to extension of the rebound that started in last year’s Q3. A set of nowcasts point to GDP growth that’s currently on track to speed up modestly from the pace of growth reported for 2020’s final quarter.
Macro Briefing: 16 February 2021
* Pelosi announces plan for commission to investigate Capitol riot
* US debt ceiling issue unresolved in Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief program
* China considers restricting rare earths exports to US defense industry
* Severe winter weather triggers emergency declarations in at least seven states
* Winter weather lifts US crude oil benchmark above $60 a barrel
* Daily change in new US Covid-19 deaths falls to three-month low
* Biden and Fed don’t see inflation risk as a challenge
* Bitcoin rally raises price to record $50,000
* 30-year Treasury yield rises above 2%–highest in a year:
Emerging Markets Stocks Continue To Lead Major Asset Classes
Shares in emerging markets were again the top weekly performer for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange traded funds. Commodities and foreign stocks in developed markets were close second- and third-place winners in last week’s trading through Friday, Feb. 12.