* Germany opposes US-backed idea to waive patents on Covid-19 vaccines
* Vaccines show promising results against COVID variants
* India’s main opposition leader warns that India’s Covid wave threatens world
* Biden administration expected to maintain limits on US investments in China
* China’s economic growth accelerated in April–fastest to date in 2021 via PMI data
* China’s exports surged more than expected in April
* Fed warns of risk of ‘significant declines’ in asset prices as valuations climb
* Chinese rocket debris expected to hit Earth this weekend.
* US jobless claims fell below 500k last week–a new pandemic low:

The US economic rebound picked up speed in the first quarter and even faster growth is expected for the April-through-June period, according to a set of GDP nowcasts.

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* US supports plan to waive intellectual property rules for vaccines
* Treasury Dept. urges Congress to raise US debt level this summer
* World’s biggest pension fund rethinking ESG investing
* Epic rally in lumber prices adds average of $36,000 to cost of new homes
* Global economic growth accelerated to 11-year high in April via survey data
* US Services PMI reflects strongest growth on record (since 2009) in April
* US services growth slowed in April but still strong via ISM data
* Growth in US private payrolls accelerated in April–biggest gain in 7 months:

Commodities continue to benefit from ongoing worries about inflation and real-time reports of price hikes for basic materials.

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Today’s post rolls out the inaugural Risk Review column for the major asset classes, a monthly update that’s the companion piece to the monthly performance report and risk-premia estimates. Readers can use this trio for a quick summary of historical and expected return and how that compares with several measures of risk.

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* Rates may need to rise to prevent overheating US economy, says Treasury Sec.
* Supply shortages, logistical logjams may force firms to raise prices
* Covid deaths in India may double in weeks ahead, forecasters warn
* Eurozone growth continued to strengthen in April via PMI survey data
* Birthrate in US declined to another record low in 2020
* US factory orders rebounded sharply in March
* US trade deficit surged to record in March
* US gasoline price approaching seven-year high:

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) in the long run ticked higher again in April, rising to 5.9% annualized — modestly above the previous month’s estimate. The current expected return estimate — defined as performance above the “risk-free” rate — is still well below the previous realized performance peak for GMI, but today’s revision represents a solid bounce off the lows for recent projections.  

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* Biden lifts limit on refugees allowed into US
* Congressional debate set to begin on Biden’s economic plan
* India’s pandemic worsens as total Covid-19 cases reported surpasses 20 million
* Warren Buffett names successor to run Berkshire Hathaway
* Global manufacturing activity rebounded less than forecast in March
* US Mfg PMI continued to rise in April but ISM Mfg Index unexpectedly slipped:

April delivered across-the-board gains in the major asset classes as risk-assets around the world rebounded from widespread losses in March. Thanks to a strong tailwind, you had to really work hard to lose money last month in conventionally managed multi-asset-class portfolios.

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* Households in wealthy nations amassed record savings–will they spend it?
* Nearly two-thirds of Americans are optimistic on direction of US, poll finds
* Warren Buffett says US economy is red hot with rising inflation risk
* Verizon is considering selling AOL and Yahoo remnants
* Eurozone manfacturing activity continued to accelerate sharply in April
* US dollar on track for longest run of weakness in nine months
* Broad-based commodities bull market is gathering momentum
* Is herd immunity still possible for the US? Maybe not
* US consumer spending rebounded in March
* US personal income spending surged in March due to gov’t stimulus: