Macro Briefing | 14 August 2020

Stimulus talks in Congress remain in limbo over $1 trillion aid to states: BBG
Israel and UAE sign historic deal that could reorder Mideast geopolitics: AC
US seizes Iranian fuel cargo to enforce sanctions: WSJ
Trump blocks coronavirus aid to derail funding for mail-in voting: Reuters
Greek and Turkish warships involved in ‘mini-collision’ in Mediterranean: Reuters
China’s industrial rebound continues but retail sales still sliding in July: SCMP
Is the stock market too optimistic in pricing in economic recovery? MW
US import prices rise for third straight month in July: MW
US jobless claims fell below 1-million mark last week–lowest since March: CNBC

Macro Briefing | 13 August 2020

Pompeo hints at broader US restrictions for Chinese tech: CNBC
US: Iran briefly seized oil tanker near the strategic Strait of Hormuz: AP
Next big Covid-19 hurdle: producing hundreds of millions of vaccines: Politico
US favors new tariffs on certain goods made in France and Germany: BBG
China fears deepening financial war as tensions rise with US: Reuters
US economic recovery headwind: state budget cuts due to coronavirus: WSJ
Buffett Indicator — stock-market-cap-to-GDP ratio — is flashing warning: MW
Are new US reporting rules for Covid-19 creating risks for accuracy? NYT
US consumer inflation continues to rebound but 1-year trend remains mild: MW

Will The US Economic Rebound Falter In 2020’s Second Half?

A number of encouraging economic indicators suggest that the US is recovering from the coronavirus recession that crushed output in the second quarter. But deciding if a bounce off a very deep bottom is laying the foundation for a robust, sustained recovery remains unclear. There are still too many unknowns lurking to develop a high-confidence forecast for the second half of 2020.

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Macro Briefing | 12 August 2020

Kamala Harris beats rivals to become Biden’s running mate: Politico
Is Russia’s rush to roll out a coronavirus vaccine at risk of backfiring? CNBC
China accelerates effort to be more reliant on domestic economy: WSJ
UK economic activity crashed in Q2 with a record 20.4% decline in GDP: CNBC
Eurozone industrial output rose for a second month in June: MW
Small Business Optimism Index edged down in July after strong gain in June: NFIB
US wholsale inflation rose sharply in July but 1yr trend still negative: MW
Economists warn that economic-crisis risk will rise without more jobless relief: FTE

China Continues To Lead World Equity Markets In 2020

Reviewing the global equity market as a single portfolio reveals a sleepy affair for year-to-date results through yesterday’s close (Aug. 10). But slicing and dicing shares into the major equity regions reveals a more dramatic story, including a strong lead for China’s stock market, based on a set of exchange traded funds.
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Macro Briefing | 11 August 2020

Putin says Russia is the first country to approve a Covid-19 vaccine: Reuters
Trump may block some US citizens returning to America due to Covid-19: Reuters
Trump says he’s considering a capital gains tax cut: BBG
Employers are skeptical of Trump’s plan for deferring payroll taxes: WSJ
New US sanctions on Hong Kong complicate banking industry links to China: CNBC
Big Tech meets the Biden campaign: NYT
German investor sentiment rebounded more than expected in August: Reuters
UK employment fell the most in over a decade in Q2: BBC
US job openings rose more than expected in June: BBG

Macro Briefing | 10 August 2020

Trump signs executive order extending some pandemic relief: CNBC
US virus relief package at standstill after failed negotiations in Congress: BBG
US’ top health official praises Taiwan’s democracy, raising US-China tension: NYT
China briefly sends fighter jets into Taiwan airspace: Reuters
Financial crisis spawned by pandemic is especially bad for millennials: WSJ
Global extreme poverty expected to rise by 100 million, World Bank predicts: AP
US payrolls rose 1.763 million in July, beating Wall Street expectations: CNBC
Consumer borrowing picked up in June, first monthly gain during pandemic: MW
30%-to-40% of US renters may be at risk of eviction: NLIHC.org