Are Asset Class Correlations At A New Permanently High Plateau?

The coronavirus crisis reordered many things in economics and finance and you can add asset correlations to the list. After markets crashed in March, followed by a strong (so far) rebound, asset classes have continued to move with an unusually deep and broad degree of unison. High, or at least higher return correlations aren’t unusual around periods of severe market corrections. The question is whether it’s different this time in the sense that the jump in correlations endures?

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Macro Briefing | 29 July 2020

Cornavirus vaccine test on monkeys offers encouraging results: NY Times
Coronavirus aid package legislation remains uncertain in Congress: Roll Call
In today’s Fed meeting, policymakers confront slipping economic momentum: BBG
Fed extends lending program through the end of 2020: CNN
Big Tech CEOs set to testify in Congress today: CNBC
US colleges increasingly opt for online classes this fall: USA Today
Europe considers if a second coronavirus wave is brewing: NBC
US consumer confidence fell more than expected in July: Reuters
Pace of US house price increase slows in May to 4.5% annually: CNBC
Real Treasury TIPS yields remain negative as downside bias persists:

This Week’s US Q2 GDP Report Will Be Ugly

Brace yourself. Although no one will be surprised by the government’s initial second-quarter economic release that’s due later this week, the numbers are widely expected to be harsh. Hope springs eternal for Q3 and beyond, but first the crowd has to digest and process the heavy loss that’s in store for Thursday, July 30, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its “advance” GDP estimate.

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Macro Briefing | 28 July 2020

Republicans propose new aid package that cuts jobless benefits: Reuters
Major test of experimental COVID-19 vaccine started on Monday: AP
Democrats want ban on federal agents in US cities: BBC
World economic rebound may be stumbling as virus rebounds: Bloomberg
Economic worries drive gold price to record high: CNN
Two GOP senators announce opposition to Shelton’s nomination to Fed: WSJ
Trump national security adviser tests positive for coronavirus: Reuters
Former Malaysian prime minister found guilty in 1MDB case: WSJ
Dallas Fed: mfg sector’s rebound continued in July after record fall in spring: FWBP
US durable goods orders continued to rebound in June after steep losses: MW

Macro Briefing | 27 July 2020

Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: GOP’s $1 trillion coronavirus relief plan ready: CNBC
Protests for racial justice flared up across US over the weekend: CNN
US consulate in Chengdu closed after Beijing retaliates for Houston: USA Today
Does coronavirus outbreak in North Korea threaten Kim’s rule? CNN
US ramps up spending on coronavirus vaccine to nearly $1 billion: AFP
Consumer survey suggests encouraging Q3 start for German economy: Reuters
Gold rises to a record high of $1900-plus per ounce: CNBC
Sales of newly built homes in US surged in June: Reuters
US economic rebounded to neutral pace in July via PMI survey data: IHS Markit
10-year real Treasury TIPS yield falls to -0.92%, below previous low in 2013:

Book Bits | 25 July 2020

Monopolized: Life in the Age of Corporate Power
David Dayen
Summary via publisher (The New Press)
Over the last forty years our choices have narrowed, our opportunities have shrunk, and our lives have become governed by a handful of very large and very powerful corporations. Today, practically everything we buy, everywhere we shop, and every service we secure comes from a heavily concentrated market. This is a world where six major banks control most of our money, four airlines shuttle most of us around the country, and four major cell phone providers connect most of our communications. If you are sick you can go to one of three main pharmacies to fill your prescription, and if you end up in a hospital almost every accessory to heal you comes from one of a handful of large medical suppliers. Dayen, the editor of the American Prospect and author of the acclaimed Chain of Title, provides a riveting account of what it means to live in this new age of monopoly and how we might resist this corporate hegemony.

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This Year’s Bull Run In Precious Metals Accelerates

The under-the-radar gains for several corners of the precious and base metals markets are drawing wider attention as buying heats up. Although year-to-date gains aren’t uniformly positive for all corners of the metals market, recent trading action suggests a bull sweep is possible in the weeks ahead as momentum builds, based on set of exchange-traded products through yesterday’s close (July 23).

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Macro Briefing | 24 July 2020

Trump cancels parts of Republican convention, citing coronavirus: CNBC
China orders US consulate in Chengdu to close–retaliation for Houston: CNN
US Covid-19 deaths above 1,100 for third straight day: Reuters
Senate GOP will delay release of coronavirus relief plan to next week: CNBC
US fighter jet came dangerously close to Iranian passenger plane over Syria: BBC
US dollar on track for weakest month since start of 2018: Bloomberg
Gold, copper and silver–unusually–are rising together this year: The Economist
PMI data: Eurozone economic output grew in July–first rise since Feb: IHS Markit
UK economy rebounds in July via PMI data–biggest increase in 5 years: IHS Markit
US Leading Econonmic Index continued to rise in June but pace slowed: MW
US jobless claims turned higher last week–a new warning for the economy: CNBC

Are Treasury Yields Poised To Test New Lows?

The demand for safe-haven government bonds shows no sign of easing. It’s not hard to understand why when you consider renewed concern that the US economic recovery is cooling, US-China relations are deteriorating, and there are few signs that America is getting control of the coronavirus. It all adds up to a strengthening conviction that buying Treasuries, even at or near record low yields, remains a prudent choice.

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