The “fair value” estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield remained relatively steady in August while the average level of the actual benchmark rate in the market continued to ease. As a result, the market premium for the 10-year yield dipped to the lowest level in nearly a year last month, based on the average for three models run by CapitalSpectator.com. The downside bias in the market premium -– actual yield less the fair-value estimate — has accelerated lately, fueled by firmer expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its Sep. 17 policy meeting.
Macro Briefing: 12 September 2025
US consumer inflation continued to rise in August at the headline level in year-over-year terms, rising to 2.9% — the highest since January. “Consumer inflation came in mildly hotter than forecast, but not nearly high enough to prevent the Fed from starting to cut rates next week,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist for Nationwide. “The labor market is losing steam and reinforces that the Fed needs to start cutting rates next week and that it will be the start of a series of rate reductions.”
Alternative Energy Stocks Continue To Lead Big Oil In 2025
It’s no secret that the Trump administration is skeptical, to put it mildly, of alternative energy. If that was a signal for investors to dump clean-energy stocks and favor the familiar names in the business of extracting fossil fuels, the crowd didn’t get the memo.
Macro Briefing: 11 September 2025
Supported by the recent decline in interest rates, US mortgage applications rose 9.2% last week vs. the year-ago level, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The latest update continues to show a stronger trend this year vs. 2024. “The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022, with both purchase and refinance applications moving higher,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist.
Is This Year’s Leadership In Foreign Stocks Fading?
Tilting portfolios toward global equities ex-US continues to post solid results for investment strategies this year, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Sep. 9). Leadership has switched back in favor of American shares in recent months, but so far foreign stocks remain well ahead of US stocks for the year-to-date comparison.
Macro Briefing: 10 September 2025
US employers added 911,000 fewer jobs during the 12 months through March, according to preliminary data from the Labor Department. The annual revision shows that the jobs market had been growing at a slower pace than previously estimated. “The slower job creation implies income growth was also on a softer footing even prior to the recent rise in policy uncertainty and economic slowdown we’ve seen since the spring,” said Oren Klachkin, market economist at Nationwide Financial. “This should give the Fed more impetus to restart its cutting cycle.”
Will Thursday’s Inflation Report Support A Fed Rate Cut?
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates at next week’s policy meeting on Sep. 17. Will Thursday’s report on consumer inflation in August play along?
Macro Briefing: 9 September 2025
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ticked up in August, above the 52-year average level. “Optimism increased slightly in August with more owners reporting stronger sales expectations and improved earnings,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While owners have cited an improvement in overall business health, labor quality remained the top issue on Main Street.”
Major Asset Classes Posting Across-The-Board Gains In 2025
If global markets flatlined at current prices through New Year’s Eve, the results would go into the history books indicating a solid, widespread bull run for 2025. The question is whether the priced-for-perfection state of affairs will endure through the fourth quarter?
Macro Briefing: 8 September 2025
US non-farm payrolls posted a weak increase in August, well below expectations. The tepid rise fueled concerns that the economy is slowing and so the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates at its Sep. 17 monetary policy meeting. “The job market is stalling short of the runway,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at jobs site Glassdoor. “The labor market is losing lift, and August’s report, along with downward revisions, suggests we’re heading into turbulence without the soft landing achieved.”
