China’s revival outlook spurs rise in global stock to four-week high: Reuters
Texas and Florida report ‘exponential’ growth in Covid-19 cases: CNBC
V recovery for world economy appears unlikely in 2020’s second half: BBG
US crude output falling at fastest rate on record: WSJ
Eurozone retail sales rebounded sharply in May: ING
German factor orders rebounded in May after three months of decline: BBG
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire buys Dominion Energy natural gas assets: CNBC
One case of bubonic plague diagnosed in China’s Inner Mongolia: BBC
China’s dominance in medical supplies will likely persist: NY Times
US stock market’s forward price-earnings ratio rises to 10-year high: JPM

● The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win
Maria Konnikova
Review via Nature
There has never been a more pressing need for digestible and coherent literature on rational decision-making. Enter The Biggest Bluff, psychologist Maria Konnikova’s depiction of her journey into professional poker. What at first seems a light-hearted story about a curious academic dipping her toe into shark-infested waters delivers a crucial lesson in how to thrive in an increasingly misleading world.
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Forecasting Macroeconomic Risk in Real Time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions
Roberto A. De Santis (European Central Bank)
July 2020
We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables serve policymakers in providing timely warnings about the severity of the crisis and the macroeconomic risk involved, because downside risks increase as financial stress and corporate spreads become tighter. We use quantile regression and the skewed t-distribution and evaluate the forecasting properties of models using out-of-sample metrics with real-time vintages.
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US coronavirus cases top 55,000–a new daily record high: WaPo
COVID-19 vaccine candidates set for late-stage clinical studies in July: Reuters
Texas governor issues statewide order to wear masks: CNBC
US and allies focus on punishing China for new Hong Kong security law: NPR
CBO expects US jobless rate will remain 10%-plus through 2020: WSJ
Caixin China General Services PMI rose to 10-year high in June: MW
Eurozone Composite PMI rebounded for second month in June: IHS Markit
US factory orders rebounded in May: Reuters
Pace of US jobless claims continue to slow but remain unusually high: MW
After record loss, US payrolls continued to rebound in June: CNBC

The long-term risk premia projection for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up again in June, rising to 4.6%. This annualized estimate for GMI reflects the long-run forecast over the “risk-free” rate, based on a risk-centered model outlined by Professor Bill Sharpe (details below).
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Daily increase in US coronavirus cases sets record of 50,000-plus: WSJ
Trump, in a change of message, says: I’m “all for masks”: BBC
China’s new security law for Hong Kong takes a bite out of free speech: Vox
Hundreds arrested in Hong Kong for breaching the new security law: CNBC
Russian voters approve law to let Putin to stay in power through 2036: CNN
Will June’s expected surge in US hiring persist in the months ahead? AP
Two firms report encouraging data for experimental Covid-19 vaccines: STAT
Fed minutes: economy still needs ‘highly accommodative’ policy: CNBC
Global mfg activity recovered most of recent losses in June: IHS Markit
US mfg activity expanded in June, rebounding from sharp decline: ISM
US companies hired nearly 2.4 million workers in June via ADP data: CNBC

Emerging-market equities rose sharply in June, posting the strongest gain for the major asset classes last month. Overall, higher prices prevailed in risk assets. The lone exception: a mild dip for high-yield bonds in the US.
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Fauci warns that new US daily Covid-19 cases could rise to 100,000: BBC
US cases up by 47,000-plus on Tuesday–biggest one-day rise so far: Reuters
Top-2 US economic policy makers pledge additional relief for labor market: WSJ
China OKs experimental Covid-19 vaccine for its military: CNN
First Hong Kong protests emerge since China imposed new security law: CNN
Eurozone mfg moved toward stabilizing in June after deep contraction: IHS Markit
US home prices continued to strengthen in April: CNBC
Chicago PMI rebounded slightly in June after crashing to 38-year low: MW
US Consumer Confidence rose to 3-month high for June: MW

Rising economic and political uncertainty has boosted everyone’s favorite precious metal in 2020. An ounce of gold was priced at just over $1,781 on Thursday (June 29), the highest since 2012, based on the continuous contract reported by Stockscharts.com. Year to date, gold is up 17% vs. a 5.5% loss for US stocks (S&P 500 Index).

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