The long-term risk premia projection for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up again in June, rising to 4.6%. This annualized estimate for GMI reflects the long-run forecast over the “risk-free” rate, based on a risk-centered model outlined by Professor Bill Sharpe (details below).
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Daily increase in US coronavirus cases sets record of 50,000-plus: WSJ
Trump, in a change of message, says: I’m “all for masks”: BBC
China’s new security law for Hong Kong takes a bite out of free speech: Vox
Hundreds arrested in Hong Kong for breaching the new security law: CNBC
Russian voters approve law to let Putin to stay in power through 2036: CNN
Will June’s expected surge in US hiring persist in the months ahead? AP
Two firms report encouraging data for experimental Covid-19 vaccines: STAT
Fed minutes: economy still needs ‘highly accommodative’ policy: CNBC
Global mfg activity recovered most of recent losses in June: IHS Markit
US mfg activity expanded in June, rebounding from sharp decline: ISM
US companies hired nearly 2.4 million workers in June via ADP data: CNBC

Emerging-market equities rose sharply in June, posting the strongest gain for the major asset classes last month. Overall, higher prices prevailed in risk assets. The lone exception: a mild dip for high-yield bonds in the US.
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Fauci warns that new US daily Covid-19 cases could rise to 100,000: BBC
US cases up by 47,000-plus on Tuesday–biggest one-day rise so far: Reuters
Top-2 US economic policy makers pledge additional relief for labor market: WSJ
China OKs experimental Covid-19 vaccine for its military: CNN
First Hong Kong protests emerge since China imposed new security law: CNN
Eurozone mfg moved toward stabilizing in June after deep contraction: IHS Markit
US home prices continued to strengthen in April: CNBC
Chicago PMI rebounded slightly in June after crashing to 38-year low: MW
US Consumer Confidence rose to 3-month high for June: MW

Rising economic and political uncertainty has boosted everyone’s favorite precious metal in 2020. An ounce of gold was priced at just over $1,781 on Thursday (June 29), the highest since 2012, based on the continuous contract reported by Stockscharts.com. Year to date, gold is up 17% vs. a 5.5% loss for US stocks (S&P 500 Index).

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Trump was reportedly briefed on Russian bounties in Feb: NY Times
Senate Republicans focus on reports of Russian bounties: Politico
China enacts controversial national security law for Hong Kong: CNN
WHO chief: ‘worst is yet to come’ for coronavirus pandemic: MW
Coronavirus surge in some US states jeopardize reopening plans elsewhere: WSJ
Fed Chairman Powell: US economy faces new challenges due to Covid-19: BBG
China’s official PMI survey data: economic growth accelerated in June: SCMP
UK economy fell 2.2% in Q1–biggest decline in more than 40 years: Guardian
Japan’s industrial output tumbled 8.4% in May–fourth straight decline: NHK
Dallas Fed Mfg Index: mfg activity snaps back in June: Houston Chron
US Pending Home Sales Index rebounded sharply in May: Bloomberg

Amid news of rising coronavirus cases in the US and elsewhere last week, investors favored bonds at the expense of risk assets, based on a set of exchange traded funds representing the major asset classes for the trading week through June 26.

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HHS Secretary: ‘window is closing’ for battling Covid spread: Politico
Global death toll from Covid-19 rises above 500,000: USA Today
Russian plot to pay bounties to kill US troops reported months ago: NYT
Trump: US intelligence didn’t find Russian bounty info credible: WSJ
US withdrawal from WHO is a major setback for managing flu risk: STAT
US-China relationship continues to deteriorate: Bloomberg
China will impose new Hong Kong visa restrictions on some US citizens: Reuters
US consumer spending rebounded in May as incomes fell: Bloomberg
Consumer Sentiment Index for US rises for second month in June: MW

● The Long Good Buy: Analysing Cycles in Markets
Peter C. Oppenheimer
Essay by author via Business Insider
It’s interesting that over many decades, despite significantly different circumstances, economic and market cycles both seem to repeat themselves.
Over the past three decades we have seen the collapse of the Soviet Union, dramatic falls in inflation and interest rates, the emergence of the internet and the digital revolution, and yet, despite all of this, cycles continue to occur. There have been close to 30 major bear markets since 1880, and 13 in the post-war period, roughly one every six years.
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Update: the spike in the daily change for US Covid-19 deaths on 6/25 was due to NJ adding “1,854 probable deaths.”  Excluding this data addition shows the downtrend for US fatalities continues. Perhaps the total spike is a false alarm. Unclear for now. New numbers in the days/weeks ahead will provide clarification, for good or ill. (See revised chart at bottom of this post that doesn’t include the NJ-add data.)

Reports of rising coronavirus cases in the US, mostly due to increases in the South and West, have been downplayed by pointing out that the trend in fatalities has continued to fall. But that narrative suddenly vanished after a dramatic spike in new deaths for Thursday, June 25.
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