Bonds are often the first choice for minimizing tail risk in investment portfolios, and for good reason. But this is a partial solution at best, and one that dispenses a wide range of “effective” results through time.
Macro Briefing | 23 June 2020
Trump extends limits on work visa through end of year: Politico
Trump: China trade deal remains ‘fully intact’: Bloomberg
White House trade adviser denies saying China trade deal is ‘over’: CNBC
Trump administration labels more Chinese news outlets “foreign missions”: NPR
Eurozone recession eases for a second month in June: IHS Markit
UK economy remains in recession but turnaround in progress: IHS Markit
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index posts strong rebound in May: Chicago Fed
US existing home sales fell sharply in May to lowest level in 10 years: MW
Commodities And US Stocks Topped Last Week’s Market Results
Broadly defined commodities and US shares posted the highest gains for the major asset classes during the trading week through Friday, June 19, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.
Macro Briefing | 22 June 2020
Global Covid-19 cases rise by a record amount, World Health Org reports: Reuters
Blood type may be risk factor for contracting Covid-19: MW
Is risk of war rising between Egypt and Turkey in Libya battle? JP
India considers closer US ties after deadly border clash with China: WSJ
Cash deposits at US banks surge to record level: CNBC
US home-mortgage delinquencies rose to nine-year high in May: Bloomberg
Bets on steeper yield curve are becoming popular: Bloomberg
Companies raise cash holdings as pandemic reorders priorities: WSJ
Almost half of US states report rise in Covid-19 cases: CNN
Daily change in US Covid-19 fatalities falls to post peak low:
Book Bits | 20 June 2020
Vikram Mansharamani
Summary via publisher (Harvard Business Review Press)
We’ve outsourced too much of our thinking. How do we get it back? Have you ever followed your GPS device to a deserted parking lot? Or unquestioningly followed the advice of an expert–perhaps a doctor or financial adviser–only to learn later that your own thoughts and doubts were correct? And what about the stories we’ve all heard over the years about sick patients–whether infected with Ebola or COVID-19–who were sent home or allowed to travel because busy staff people were following a protocol to the letter rather than using common sense? Why and how do these kinds of things happen? As Harvard lecturer and global trend watcher Vikram Mansharamani shows in this eye-opening and perspective-shifting book, our complex, data-flooded world has made us ever more reliant on experts, protocols, and technology.
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Slow Decline In Jobless Claims Threatens US Economic Rebound
The worst of the coronavirus recession for the US has passed and a recovery is underway. But the strength of the recovery is in question after yesterday’s disappointing update on jobless claims, which remain stubbornly high.
Macro Briefing | 19 June 2020
US Supreme Court deals Trump major setback on immigration policies: Reuters
Record spikes in Covid-19 cases in four big states: CA, AZ, FL & TX: CNBC
Trump renews threat to cut ties with China after diplomatic meeting: Reuters
China remains on track to ramp up purchases of US farm products: Bloomberg
UK gov’t debt tops 100% of GDP–first time since 1963: Bloomberg
China think-tank provokes India with territory claim amid border clash: TH
UK retail sales partially rebounded in May: BBC
US mortgage rates drop to new all-time low–3.13% for 30yr fixed: MW
Philly Fed Mfg Index posts strong rebound in June: PhilFed
US jobless claims continued to rise sharply last week–1.5 million-plus: CNBC
Communications, Discretionary Consumer Sectors Post 2020 Gains
And then there were three—three US equity sectors with year-to-date gains. Communications services and consumer discretionary shares have recently joined technology stocks by posting positive performance for 2020, based on a set of exchange traded funds. The remaining eight sectors, by contrast, are still in the red.
Macro Briefing | 18 June 2020
Trump requested political help from China’s Xi, Bolton book asserts: Politico
Oklahoma officials worry that Trump rally will fan Covid-19 infections: CBS
Pressure is building on India to respond to border clash with China: CNBC
China’s chief epidemiologist: Beijing coronavirus outbreak under control: CNBC
Global investment flows to China remain resilient despite coronavirus: BBG
US jobless claims expected to remain elevated in today’s update: Reuters
Treasury Secretary: global tax talks are at an impasse: WSJ
US Sec. of State meets China’s top diplomat amid rising tensions: NPR
Richest Americans cut spending the most during coronavirus recession: NYT
Mortgage applications surge to 11-year high: CNBC
US housing starts, after dramatic fall, rose modestly in May: MW
Has The US Coronavirus Recession Ended?
Yes, but it’s a tentative “yes” and the answer has several qualifications and so it’s premature to celebrate what appears to be the end of the downturn.