It’s a precarious leadership as a rebound in US coronavirus cases threaten to undermine the economic recovery, but for now it’s lonely at the top for growth and momentum as the lone equity factor strategies posting year-to-date gains, based on a set of exchange traded funds through June 24.
Macro Briefing | 25 June 2020
Rise in US coronavirus cases is accelerating: WSJ
Three highest-population states–TX, CA, FL–are center of virus rebound: CNN
NY, NJ, CT issue quarantines on travelers from hot-zone virus states: CNN
Europe considers barring US visitors when it reopens borders: CNBC
Trump considers moving US troops from Germany to Poland: NPR
US economic recovery may be weakening as coronavirus cases rebound: BBG
Second lockdown unlikely in countries as virus rebounds, analysts predict: CNBC
US jobless claims expected to remain elevated in today’s update: MW
Daily change in US Covid-19 cases jumps to two-month high: JHU
Conflicting Inflation Forecasts: Treasury Market Vs Economists
The future’s unclear, especially when it comes to anticipating the trend for inflation. Or so it appears based on comparing the Treasury market’s implied forecast vs. recent estimates from several prominent investment and consultancy shops.
Macro Briefing | 24 June 2020
Fauci tells Congress virus not under control amid surging cases: NY Times
Next several weeks will be critical coronavirus test, Fauci says: AP
Europe may ban US travelers due to coronavirus: CNN
Survey of economists: 73% expect partial US economic recovery: FiveThirtyEight
New US agency may loan billions for reshoring supply chains: Reuters
US considers new round of tariffs on UK and European imports: Bloomberg
German business sentiment posts strong rebound in June: Reuters
New US home sales surged in May: MW
Richmond Fed Mfg Index bounces back in June after deeply negative month: RF
US economic contraction eases “markedly” in June: IHS Markit
Fat Tails Everywhere? Profiling Extreme Returns: Part III
Bonds are often the first choice for minimizing tail risk in investment portfolios, and for good reason. But this is a partial solution at best, and one that dispenses a wide range of “effective” results through time.
Macro Briefing | 23 June 2020
Trump extends limits on work visa through end of year: Politico
Trump: China trade deal remains ‘fully intact’: Bloomberg
White House trade adviser denies saying China trade deal is ‘over’: CNBC
Trump administration labels more Chinese news outlets “foreign missions”: NPR
Eurozone recession eases for a second month in June: IHS Markit
UK economy remains in recession but turnaround in progress: IHS Markit
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index posts strong rebound in May: Chicago Fed
US existing home sales fell sharply in May to lowest level in 10 years: MW
Commodities And US Stocks Topped Last Week’s Market Results
Broadly defined commodities and US shares posted the highest gains for the major asset classes during the trading week through Friday, June 19, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.
Macro Briefing | 22 June 2020
Global Covid-19 cases rise by a record amount, World Health Org reports: Reuters
Blood type may be risk factor for contracting Covid-19: MW
Is risk of war rising between Egypt and Turkey in Libya battle? JP
India considers closer US ties after deadly border clash with China: WSJ
Cash deposits at US banks surge to record level: CNBC
US home-mortgage delinquencies rose to nine-year high in May: Bloomberg
Bets on steeper yield curve are becoming popular: Bloomberg
Companies raise cash holdings as pandemic reorders priorities: WSJ
Almost half of US states report rise in Covid-19 cases: CNN
Daily change in US Covid-19 fatalities falls to post peak low:
Book Bits | 20 June 2020
Vikram Mansharamani
Summary via publisher (Harvard Business Review Press)
We’ve outsourced too much of our thinking. How do we get it back? Have you ever followed your GPS device to a deserted parking lot? Or unquestioningly followed the advice of an expert–perhaps a doctor or financial adviser–only to learn later that your own thoughts and doubts were correct? And what about the stories we’ve all heard over the years about sick patients–whether infected with Ebola or COVID-19–who were sent home or allowed to travel because busy staff people were following a protocol to the letter rather than using common sense? Why and how do these kinds of things happen? As Harvard lecturer and global trend watcher Vikram Mansharamani shows in this eye-opening and perspective-shifting book, our complex, data-flooded world has made us ever more reliant on experts, protocols, and technology.
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Slow Decline In Jobless Claims Threatens US Economic Rebound
The worst of the coronavirus recession for the US has passed and a recovery is underway. But the strength of the recovery is in question after yesterday’s disappointing update on jobless claims, which remain stubbornly high.