Economic fallout stirs debate about when to reopen US economy: WSJ
Fed expands stimulus to support economy and markets: CNBC
European Union agrees to $540 billion rescue package for coronavirus: BBC
IMF chief: global economy set for worst recession since Great Depression: Reuters
OPEC deal on oil production cut in doubt after Mexico balks: CNBC
Mortgage rates near record low but securing a new loan is challenging: MW
US jobless claims continue to soar: CNBC
US Consumer Sentiment suffers dramatic decline in April: Bloomberg

The most important economic indicator at the moment has nothing to do with the dismal science per se and everything to do with how a certain health crisis unfolds over the days, weeks and months ahead. The elephant in the room, of course, is coronavirus data. In particular, the point where it peaks. Depending on the country, the timing (and reliability) of the peaking varies. Ultimately, a global apex is the main event. Unfortunately, the data is questionable and the future is unclear as ever. Not a great basis for analysis and forecasting, but it’s the only game in town. With that in mind, let’s take a brief tour of US data to see where we stand.

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Sanders quits presidential race; Biden becomes presumptive Dem nominee: Vox
NY Gov Cuomo: state beginning to flatten coronavirus curve: Newsweek
Will today’s Opec+ meeting stabilize flooded oil market? CNBC
Electricity data offers a useful real-time measure of the recession: NY Times
US jobless claims expected to surge again in today’s weekly update: CNBC
Coronavirus may not fade in summer, scientists warn: NY Times
IMF, World Bank report surge of aid requests from developing world: WSJ
Fed minutes show concern over coronavirus in March: Reuters
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index posts biggest weekly decline on record: BBG

This year’s tumble in stocks has left no corner of the world untouched, but China’s equity market continues to suffer the smallest decline on a year-to-date basis through yesterday’s close (Apr. 7) for the world’s major equity market regions, based on a set of exchange-listed funds.

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US faces uncertain path for restarting economy: WSJ
Incoming data confirms that deep global recession began in March: Bloomberg
US suffered highest daily coronavirus death count to date on Tuesday (Apr. 7): BBC
Trump threatens to freeze funding for World Health Organization: FT
Treasury Sec. Mnuchin seeks additional $250 billion in small business aid: CNBC
Acting US Navy secretary resigns: Politico
The recent bounce in oil holds ahead of OPEC talks: CNBC
Twitter founder Jack Dorsey pledges $1 billion to fight coronavirus: BBC
Ahead of coronavirus fallout, US job openings near 7 million: MW
US small business optimism fell sharply in March: NFIB

There’s been no place to hide for US equity beta strategies this year, but the distribution of pain varies widely from a risk-factor perspective, based on a set of representative exchange-traded funds. The factor funds with the softest haircuts year to date: large-cap growth, momentum and low-volatility. By contrast, the various flavors of small cap , along with mid-cap value, have suffered the most.
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UK’s Boris Johnson in intensive care with coronavirus: CNBC
Pelosi: next economic stimulus bill will be $1 trillion: Bloomberg
Cautious optimism on clues that Europe’s coronavirus outbreak is easing: CNBC
No coronvirus deaths reported in China for first time: BBC
Japan approves near-$1 trillion stimulus bill to fight coronavirus: Reuters
Fed, Treasury working on new policy for small-business payroll loans: WSJ
2-year Treasury yield bounces off of seven-year low:

After weeks of falling, broadly defined commodities rallied sharply last week (through April 3) and posted the biggest gain for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. The first gain in six weeks for raw materials overall may be fleeting, but for the moment the rear-view mirror for this corner of markets is looking up.

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US faces a rough week ahead for battling coronavirus: Reuters
At least one-quarter of US economy idled by shutdown: WSJ
Emerging economies face challenges as default risk rises: FT
Bankrupt hospitals are back in demand during coronavirus crisis: WSJ
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson Admitted to Hospital for Coronavirus: Slate
Opec meeting re: production cut delayed amid oversupplied oil market: NY Times
Oil could fall to single digits without a deal out output cut: CNBC
German factory orders dropped in Feb–before coronavirus blowback: Reuters
US payrolls tumbled 701,000 in March: CNBC
Bloomberg’s recession tracker: Global downturn started in March: Bloomberg

Reported cases of Covid-19 infections on a global basis continue to exceed the median forecast, based on CapitalSpectator.com’s 8-model combination estimate (see note below). That’s a clue that a peak on a worldwide basis remains elusive for the immediate future. By contrast, new cases that fall below the median forecast on a continual basis will strengthen expectations for assuming that a durable apex is near or has already started. Alas, we don’t appear to be at that turning point yet for the global numbers.

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