Private payrolls in the US defied pessimistic forecasts and rebounded sharply in June, the Labor Department reports. Although some analysts recently insisted that the weak gain in jobs in May was a sure sign that a new US recession in the near term is fate, today’s data complicates that dark forecast.

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All the world’s major regions for equities are posting solid gains so far this year, but markets in Russia and Eastern Europe have pulled well ahead of the field in recent weeks, based on a set of exchange-traded products.

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Does Trump’s Fed pick raise political risk for the central bank? NY Times
Economists expect a rebound in US job growth for June: Reuters
German factory orders plunged in May: Bloomberg
German and French 10yr bond yields fall to record lows: CNBC
US jobless claims remain close to half-century low: MW
Trade deficit for US surged in May to five-month high: Reuters
US job cuts rose to 10yr high in first half of 2019: CG&C
ISM Non-Mfg Index eased in June but still reflects moderate growth: ISM
PMI survey data points to ‘subdued growth’ for US services sector: IHS Markit
US factory orders continued to decline in May: Reuters
Slower growth trend expected for US private payrolls in today’s June update:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness…

And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.

The value factor may not be dead, but it’s certainly on life support. The question is whether this popular but currently challenged risk premium for equity investors will revive any time soon, if ever? No one knows, at least no one without a reliable crystal ball. But perhaps we can find some clues on what’s coming by searching for likely smoking guns that are behind value’s demise (or current state of suspended animation, if you prefer).

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Did China come out on top after Trump-Xi G20 meeting? CNBC
Trump picks two nominees for Federal Reserve board: Bloomberg
IMF’s Christine Lagarde to lead European Central Bank: Reuters
Eurozone Composite PMI: ‘solid growth’ for June: IHS Markit
China’s economy slowed in June, weakest since last Oct: IHS Markit
1yr trend for US private payrolls projected to hold at +1.9%:

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up in June, rising to an annualized 4.8%. Today’s revision reflects a modest gain over last month’s 4.5% projection. GMI is an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash). The performance estimate for the benchmark represents the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long term.
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US considers imposing new trade tariffs on Europe: WSJ
China condemns violent Hong Kong protests: Reuters
Slowdown in worldwide growth has been ‘deeper than expected’: BIS
Roubini, aka Dr Doom, sees global recession by 2020: Bloomberg
OPEC extends oil production cuts by 9 months: CNBC
US investment in private construction fell to 2-year low in May: CNBC
Global mfg sector contracts for second month in June: IHS Markit
PMI survey data point to sluggish growth in US mfg sector: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index reflects slowest growth in over two years in June: MW

Nirvana swept over global markets in June as all the major asset classes posted gains. Even more remarkable, last month’s across-the-board increases mark the second time this year that everything rose in a calendar month (January also generated a rally in everything).
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Trump: US-China trade talks ‘back on track’: Reuters
Opec expected to extend oil-production cuts: Reuters
Mfg activity contracted in Eurozone for fifth month in June: IHS Markit
China’s mfg sector contracted in June: IHS Markit
UK mfg recession deepens to biggest decline in 6 years: IHS Markit
Trade-war risk: the only threat for the US economy at the moment: CFA Inst
Chicago PMI fell below neutral 50 mark in June: ISM Chicago
Consumer Sentiment Index for US remained at elevated level in June: MW
US consumer spending continued to rise at moderate 1-year pace in May: