Economic and political risks appear to be rising, but the global stock market remains resilient in terms of maintaining a strong year-to-date performance, based on an exchange-traded fund. Within the major components of this global ETF proxy, however, lies a dramatic evolution of leaders and laggards in recent weeks.
Macro Briefing: 12 June 2019
Low expectations prevail for possible Trump-Xi trade talks: Reuters
Trump calls Fed policies ‘ridiculous’; says board is clueless: WSJ
US Energy Sec: US will maintain oil output despite lower prices: CNBC
Hong Kong protests against extradition bill continue on Wednesday: CNN
Businesses in Hong Kong are concerned as protests roll on: NY Times
Consumer inflation in China increased to 15-month high in May: CNBC
White House economic adviser predicts US growth at 3% pace in 2019: CNBC
US Small Business Optimism Index rose to 7-month high in May: NFIB
US wholesale inflation barely rose in May: MW
Core Consumer Price Index for May expected to slip to +2.0% annual pace:
US Growth Nowcast For Q2 Stabilizes At Modest Pace
Recent volatility in US economic indicators has trimmed the outlook for the upcoming second-quarter GDP report (due at the end of July), but the current estimates show a degree of stability after a period of downgrades. That’s an encouraging sign, although with another month-plus of data releases to digest before the government’s preliminary Q2 GDP data is published leaves plenty of room for surprises.
Macro Briefing: 11 June 2019
Trump will raise Chinese tariffs if Xi doesn’t meet at G20: Bloomberg
Mnuchin: China is letting its currency weaken to offset tariffs: SCMP
Will more tariffs on China push US into recession? CNBC
California to offer health care to illegal immigrants: BBC
Half brother of N. Korean leader was a CIA source: WSJ
Are the Hong Kong protests the last battle for Chinese democracy? Slate
Swollen rivers are economic headache for US Midwest & South: NY Times
US job openings fell slightly in April as hiring rose to record high: Reuters
Across-The-Board Gains For The Major Asset Classes Last Week
Global markets rebounded last week, posting gains in all corners of the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. The broad sweep of positive returns marks the first across-the-board price increases on a calendar-week basis in three months.
Macro Briefing: 10 June 2019
Trump claims victory over Mexico border conflict but is it a mirage? CNN
Revised US-Mexico trade bill’s future uncertain due to politics: Bloomberg
Treasury Sec. Mnuchin defends using security and economics as US policy: CNBC
G-20 finance officials vow to protect global growth: MW
Hong Kong pushes China extradition bill despite protests: Reuters
A Fed rate cut appears likely, but when? Bloomberg
China’s imports fell sharply in May due to soft domestic demand: WSJ
Brexit woes weigh on UK economy, which fell sharply in April: Reuters
China warns tech firms against cooperating with US ban: NY Times
Will fighting economic wars near and far pay off for the US? NY Times
US hiring in May slows to 1.6% annual pace, slowest in over a year:
Book Bits | 8 June 2019
By Alan B. Krueger
Review via The New York Times
Mr. Krueger has a “knack of identifying important questions that he could convincingly answer with the data and data-analysis tools at his disposal,” as his former teacher, Lawrence Summers, wrote in a Washington Post op-ed after his death. And while “Rockonomics” does make ample use of data, it is the dozens of interviews Mr. Krueger conducted with industry artists, lawyers and executives that frame its highly personal preoccupations. Rather than just provide a tutorial in media economics, Professor Krueger schools us in the costs and benefits of creativity itself.
The result is a wide-ranging work that touches on topics as diverse as industry structure, personal financial management, income inequality, depression and intellectual property rights. The author’s sparkling intelligence and lively prose make for a thought-provoking and enjoyable read. But the sheer breadth of subjects makes it impossible to fully explore each of them.
Continue reading
US Labor Market Growth Was Surprisingly Weak In May
US companies added just 90,000 workers in May, according to today’s payrolls report from the Labor Department. The soft gain surprised analysts and marks a hefty slowdown from April’s solid 205,000 increase. The deceleration in growth is worrisome, although mostly because it reflects uncertainty about President Trump’s trade war with China and, more recently, Mexico. If and when these battles end, or at least cool, it’s reasonable to assume that the labor market will rebound. Meantime, employers are taking a cautious approach to hiring.
Profiling Monetary Policy’s Influence On The Stock Market
Most investors recognize that central banks are a key driver in the ebb and flow of equity prices through time. But the relationship between interest rates, monetary policy and the stock market is constantly evolving. Some analysts advise that in recent years this link has become unusually influential. As we’ll see, that’s a theory that finds support in the data.
Macro Briefing: 7 June 2019
Trump plans to declare new nat’l emergency to impose tariffs: The Hill
Progress reported in US-Mexico trade talks: Reuters
Strong US job growth expected in today’s update for May: Reuters
Is US recession worry overblown? WSJ
Fed faces challenges in offsetting headwinds from trade conflicts: CNBC
German industrial product fell sharply in April: MW
US imports and exports tumbled in April as trade gap narrowed: Bloomberg
US job cuts surged in May, lifting annual change to +86%: CG&C
Jobless claims in US hold steady at low level: CNBC
