Macro Briefing: 4 February 2019

A new government shutdown for US may be brewing: Bloomberg
Suspension of nuclear treaty by US and Russia spark fear of new arms race: CNBC
UK and Spain recognize Guaidó as Venezuela’s president: BBC
Pope makes historic visit to Middle East: BBC
The big tech stocks are no longer driving the stock market: NY Times
US consumer sentiment slumped in Jan to lowest level since Trump elected: MW
ISM survey data: US manufacturing activity picked up in Jan: CNN
US Mfg PMI: output in mfg sector strengthened to 4-month high in Jan: IHS Markit
US payrolls rose sharply in January, beating all forecasts: Bloomberg
Construction spending for US rose 0.8% in Nov: MW
Crude oil price (W. Texas Int.) on Friday rose to highest close since mid-November:

Book Bits | 2 February 2019

● Downhill from Here: Retirement Insecurity in the Age of Inequality
By Katherine S. Newman
Review via The Washington Post
“Downhill from here” is an exquisitely ambiguous phrase for the state of retirement security in America. It might suggest a restful and well-earned glide down the back of the mountain that one has climbed in a lifetime of hard work. But the same phrase can mean nearly the opposite — a descent into hardship or suffering.
It is the latter, darker meaning that sets the tone for Katherine S. Newman’s excellent new book, “Downhill From Here: Retirement Insecurity in the Age of Inequality.” But Newman’s title also evokes the contrast between what retirement means in today’s America and what it is supposed to mean.
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US Private Payrolls Surged In January

The Labor Department reports that US companies continued to hire workers at a strong pace in January. The 296,000 gain in payrolls last month beat the consensus forecast by a wide margin. Even more impressive, the annual rate of growth for the nonfarm workforce in the private sector ticked up to the strongest pace in nearly three years.
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Macro Briefing: 1 February 2019

Trump is upbeat about trade talks with China: WSJ
Trump: border talks with Congress a ‘waste of time’: NY Times
Economists expect softer growth in today’s payrolls report for Jan: Bloomberg
Gov’t shutdown may complicate analysis of today’s payrolls report: NY Times
Eurozone mfg inches closer to stagnation in Jan: IHS Markit
China Mfg PMI: survey data reflects slight contraction in Jan: IHS Markit
The Fed’s pause on rate hikes suggests softer growth ahead: Reuters
Chicago PMI: growth cooled in January to moderate pace: Chicago PMI
US wage growth in Q4 exceeded 3% for first time in a decade: CNBC
US job cuts up 19% year-over-year in January: CG&C
Jobless claims in US surged last week, possibly due to seasonal quirk: MW
New home sales in US rose sharply in Nov but annual pace is still negative: WSJ

Is Housing The Spoiler For The US Economy In 2019?

Yesterday’s scheduled release of US gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter is still a mystery, courtesy of lingering effects of the partial government shutdown that ended last week. The good news is that whenever the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the data (the date remains “to be determined”) the results are likely to show that the expected slowdown in Q4 growth was moderate. The question is whether the trend will continue to decelerate this year? The jury’s still out, due to limited 2019 data published so far.
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Macro Briefing: 31 January 2019

Fed holds interest rates steady, hints at pausing for near term: Reuters
Investors increasingly focused on Fed’s quantitative tightening policy: NY Times
Fed’s pause eases pressure on emerging markets: Bloomberg
PMI survey: China’s mfg sector contracted for 2nd month in Jan: CNBC
Italy’s economy contracted for 2nd quarter in Q4: Reuters
Senate leader focused on avoiding another gov’t shutdown: Politico
US pending home sales fell 9.8% yoy in Dec–12th straigh annual decline: CNBC
ADP: companies in US expanded payrolls by a strong 213,000 jobs in Jan: MW

ADP: Private US Payrolls Post “Significant Growth” In January

US companies added 213,000 workers to payrolls this month, according to the ADP National Employment Report. Although the monthly increase is below December’s strong 263,000 gain, the latest number still reflect a healthy expansion for the labor market. The release goes a long way in dismissing concern that a new recession is imminent. Today’s report (and Monday’s encouraging data from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December) follows the cautious but upbeat analysis of the US business cycle published earlier this month.
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