The economy grew 2.1% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. Although that marks a hefty slowdown from Q1’s 3.1% increase, the Q2 advance is a bit stronger than expected.
It’s (Still) Tough To Beat Mr. Market
If you keep banging your head against the wall, presumably a lesson or two will creep into your cracked skull. But if those lessons are related to investing, the crowd suffers from a recurring and long-running bout of attention deficit disorder.
Macro Briefing | 26 July 2019
Slower US growth expected in today’s Q2 GDP report: Reuters
ECB signals plans for more stimulus to combat weakening economy: WSJ
Record temps in Europe as heatwave bakes the Continent: CBS
Automakers reject Trump admin and strike emissions deal with Calif: NY Times
US durable goods orders rebounded in June after two monthly declines: WSJ
Trade deficit for US narrowed in June: MW
Jobless claims in US fell to 3-month low last week, signaling healthy labor mkt: MW
Will Weak Housing And Manufacturing Sectors Lead To Recession?
This year’s slowdown in US economic growth has been accompanied by stronger headwinds in manufacturing and housing. History suggests these are clear signs that recession risk is elevated and it’s merely a matter of time before the business cycle succumbs. But optimists say that consumer spending, supported by what’s expected to be a new round of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, will save the day and keep growth alive. The next several weeks of data releases (starting with next week’s employment report) may tell us which outlook is correct.
Macro Briefing | 25 July 2019
N. Korea fires short-range missiles into sea, raising doubts for nuclear talks: BBC
US warship sails through Taiwan Strait, raising tension with China: Reuters
Mueller’s testimony disappoints Trump’s critics: Politico
Mueller says Russia still meddling in US elections: CNN
Boris Johnson unveils new cabinet appointments on first day as PM: BBC
Is the ECB preparing to cut rates? MW
New US home sales rebounded sharply in June: CNBC
Europe’s mfg downturn weighs on economic trend in July: IHS Markit
German business sentiment continues to deteriorate in July: Reuters
Has the boom in US auto sales peaked? NY Times
US economic output ticked up in July but remains subdued: IHS Markit
Eastern Europe/Russia and US Still Lead World Equity Markets
This year’s rally in stocks has left no major region of the world untouched by animal spirits. But the appetite for risk is strongest in Eastern Europe/Russia, closely followed by the United States, based on year-to-date returns via a set of exchange-listed products that represent the main economic regions on the planet.
Macro Briefing | 24 July 2019
China warns that military can be used to contain Hong Kong protests: NY Times
Boris Johnson, Britain’s new prime minister, takes office today: BBC
US-China trade talks will resume next week: WSJ
US Dept of Justice announces antitrust review of Big Tech: CNBC
China says US is undermining global stability: Bloomberg
Robert Mueller scheduled to testify in Congress today: CNN
FBI director: Russia intent on interfering in US elections: Reuters
Eurozone growth remained muted in June, falling to 3-month low: IHS Markit
German mfg sector slumped to worst performance in 7 years in June: IHS Markit
Manufacturing is contracting in the mid-Atlantic states for July: Richmond Fed
US existing home sales fell in June and continued to slide in annual terms: MW
US Growth On Track To Slow In This Week’s Q2 Report
The government’s preliminary estimate of gross domestic product for the second quarter, scheduled for release on Friday (July 26), is expected to reveal a substantial downshift in US economic growth, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. Although output will be strong enough to skirt a recession through the end of June, the downshift comes at a time of rising concern that the economy’s forward momentum will continue to decelerate in this year’s second half.
Macro Briefing | 23 July 2019
Trump and Congress agree on deal to raise debt, spending caps: Reuters
Bigger deficits look set to be legacy of Trump era: Politico
Trump administration considers ending food stamps for 3 million: Bloomberg
Presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren predicts “economic crash”: Medium
Does Warren’s dire forecast pass the smell test?: CNBC
UK set to select new prime minister today: BBC
S. Korean fighter jets fired warning shots at Russian military aircraft: CNN
N. Korea’s Kim inspects new submarine that may carry missiles: NY Times
US economic growth remained subdued in June: Chicago Fed
Foreign Bonds Were Last Week’s Leaders As Commodities Plunged
Bonds in emerging and non-US developed markets topped last week’s performance profile for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. By contrast, broadly defined commodities tumbled, suffering the deepest weekly setback in nearly two months for the trading week through Friday, July 19.