Inflation is relatively low compared with the post-pandemic surge, when the year-over-year change for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked at 9.0% in June 2022. The current 2.7% pace through through this past November is tame by comparison. The concern is that inflation has turned sticky lately, just ahead of expectations for a Trump 2.0 regime shift in government policies that some economists predict could lift pricing pressure. The bond market, as a result, is increasingly demanding a higher risk premium via higher yields.
Macro Briefing: 9 January 2025
US jobless claims fell to 201,000 last week, lowest level in nearly a year. The historically low layoffs suggests a healthy labor market for the near-term outlook. “The Fed says rate cuts from here on out will be gradual,” says Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “Today’s claims data say that they need not be in a rush to ease monetary conditions. Fed policy is aimed at supporting the economy and the job market before a recession shapes up.”
Are Treasury Yields Flashing A Warning Sign For Inflation?
The risk of reflation has been bubbling for several months and yesterday’s economic news on prices in the services sector fueled new concerns. The bond market is paying attention, or so the renewed rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield suggests.
Macro Briefing: 8 January 2025
Business activity in the US services sector accelerated in December, according to the survey-based ISM Services Index. The index rose to 54.1, rising further above the neutral 50 mark, indicating a solid pace of expansion. A possible warning sign for inflation in the report is the strength in the prices index for services. “There was general optimism expressed across many industries, but tariff concerns elicited the most panelist comments,” says Steve Miller, chair of ISM’s Business Survey Committee.
US Q4 GDP Growth Still On Track To Slow After Strong Q3 Rise
US economic activity looks set to post softer growth in the government’s upcoming fourth-quarter GDP report. Based on the median nowcast from several sources, output appears set to downshift to the slowest increase since 2024’s first quarter.
Macro Briefing: 7 January 2025
US factory orders fell more than expected in November. New orders for manufactured goods dropped 0.4% compared with October, marking the fourth monthly decline in the past four. For the year-over-year trend, factory orders have slumped 1.9% in November, remaining in a tight range around zero change that’s prevailed over the past 18 months.
Risk-On Sentiment Prevails For 2025’s Debut, Fueled By US Stocks
There are many reasons to question a bullish outlook at the start of the year, but the gravity-defying trend remains intact overall, based on a set of ETF pairs that track global asset allocation strategies through Friday’s close (Jan. 3). The analysis turns mixed, however, when analyzing markets on a more granular level.
Macro Briefing: 6 January 2025
US manufacturing’s contraction eased in December, according to the ISM Manufacturing Index. The survey-based indicator rose to 49.3 last month, the highest since March. Despite the improvement, the index remains below the neutral 50 mark and has reflected contraction for 25 of the past 26 months. Meanwhile, analysts at ING advise that “US manufacturing shows encouraging signs of life… after languishing for much of the past two years.”
Book Bits: 04 January 2025
● Prop Trading Secrets: How Successful Traders are Living off the Markets
Kathy Lien and Etienne Crete
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
In Prop Trading Secrets of Successful Funded Traders: How Individual Traders are using Proprietary Trading to Achieve Financial Freedom, Kathy Lien, author and managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, and Etienne Crete, full-time trader and founder of Desire to Trade, deliver a collection of 14 revealing interviews with proprietary traders successfully making a living off the markets. You’ll explore insights from veteran traders with over 10 years’ experience in the markets, winners of a variety of trading championships, and contemporary prop traders using methods like funded accounts to trade other people’s money.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 03 January 2025
The expected return over the long run for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady in December vs. the previous month. The unchanged forecast, based on three models defined below, reflects a second month with the highest return outlook in recent history for this multi-asset-class global benchmark.