US and China set to relaunch trade talks: Reuters
Wall Street wonders if US will pursue weak-dollar policy: Bloomberg
US lawmakers don’t share Trump’s criticism of Fed chief: WSJ
Hong Kong’s leader says controversial extradition bill is dead: CNBC
Are central banks prepared to fight a global recession? NY Times
Rental demand soars at the expense of home buying: CNBC
US consumer credit expanded in May for second month: MW
10yr/3mo Treasury yield curve remains negative for 7th week:
In addition to the day job here at The Capital Spectator, your editor is now a contributing writer for a series of columns for The Milwaukee Company on risk, portfolio management and the usual suspects that generally fall under the heading of the money game. The agenda is broad, the raw material for analysis is endless, and the journey still begins with a first step. In this case, it’s a brief primer on applying basic risk metrics to portfolios in the cause of separating the wheat from the chaff.
Property shares in the US and offshore markets posted the biggest gains for the major asset classes in the first week of trading for the third quarter, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.
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Strong US jobs growth report undermines case for rate cut: CNBC
Trump rolls out more criticisms of Federal Reserve: Bloomberg
Greece elects conservative gov’t, pledging tax cuts, investment: Reuters
Turkish lira weakens after central bank chief is fired: CNBC
Deutsche Bank announces huge layoffs and restructuring plans: WSJ
German industrial output rebounded but yoy change sinks deeper into red
US payrolls rebounded sharply in June: CNBC
1yr trend for US industrial/commercial loans slipped to 6mo low in May:
By Sarah L. Quinn
Summary via publisher (Princeton U. Press)
Federal housing finance policy and mortgage-backed securities have gained widespread attention in recent years because of the 2008 financial crisis, but issues of government credit have been part of American life since the nation’s founding. From the 1780s, when a watershed national land credit policy was established, to the postwar foundations of our current housing finance system, American Bonds examines the evolution of securitization and federal credit programs. Sarah Quinn shows that since the Westward expansion, the U.S. government has used financial markets to manage America’s complex social divides, and politicians and officials across the political spectrum have turned to land sales, home ownership, and credit to provide economic opportunity without the appearance of market intervention or direct wealth redistribution.
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Private payrolls in the US defied pessimistic forecasts and rebounded sharply in June, the Labor Department reports. Although some analysts recently insisted that the weak gain in jobs in May was a sure sign that a new US recession in the near term is fate, today’s data complicates that dark forecast.
All the world’s major regions for equities are posting solid gains so far this year, but markets in Russia and Eastern Europe have pulled well ahead of the field in recent weeks, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
Does Trump’s Fed pick raise political risk for the central bank? NY Times
Economists expect a rebound in US job growth for June: Reuters
German factory orders plunged in May: Bloomberg
German and French 10yr bond yields fall to record lows: CNBC
US jobless claims remain close to half-century low: MW
Trade deficit for US surged in May to five-month high: Reuters
US job cuts rose to 10yr high in first half of 2019: CG&C
ISM Non-Mfg Index eased in June but still reflects moderate growth: ISM
PMI survey data points to ‘subdued growth’ for US services sector: IHS Markit
US factory orders continued to decline in May: Reuters
Slower growth trend expected for US private payrolls in today’s June update:
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness…
And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.
The value factor may not be dead, but it’s certainly on life support. The question is whether this popular but currently challenged risk premium for equity investors will revive any time soon, if ever? No one knows, at least no one without a reliable crystal ball. But perhaps we can find some clues on what’s coming by searching for likely smoking guns that are behind value’s demise (or current state of suspended animation, if you prefer).
