The Inverted Curve and Recession: A Hoax, When It Ends?
Yosef Bonaparte (University of Colorado at Denver)
June 17, 2019
The paper shows that the chance inverted curve predicts recession is less than 3.9%, and even not statistically significant. But then we ask why investors still see linkage between inverted curve and recession? The behavior psychology research demonstrates that, for the majority, bad events (such as the 2007 event) register stronger and longer than good events, and vivid in investors’ memory. Finally, we show that the strongest and best predictor for recession is the current GDP growth.
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US Treasury Secretary: US-China trade deal is 90% complete: CNBC
Mueller will testify in Congress next month after all: WSJ
Trump threatens partial ‘obliteration’ if Iran attacks ‘anything American’: Reuters
A third Trump-Kim summit is a possibility: CNN
Fed officials tamp down expectations for a rate cut: MW
US Consumer Confidence Index falls to nearly 2-year low in June: MW

Projected US economic output for the second quarter is holding steady at 2.0%, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The estimate reflects a slowdown from Q1’s 3.1% gain, but the softer increase in expected economic activity for the current quarter appears to have stabilized. Today’s median nowcast is unchanged from the moderate 2.0% estimate published two weeks ago.

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Iran says new sanctions end diplomacy with US: NBC
US tariffs on China reshaping global trade: Bloomberg
Trump attacks the Federal Reserve, again, in tweets: WSJ
Gold rally continues, rising to highest price since 2013: MW
US dollar falls to 3-month low against euro: Reuters
Biggest US banks pass Federal Reserve’s stress test: P&I
Manufacturing growth in Texas picked up in June: Dallas Fed
Below-trend US expansion continued in May: Chicago Fed

It was hard to lose money in the markets last week as all the major asset classes posted gains, based on a set of exchange traded funds. The rally in everything marks the second week in the past three that the bulls dominated and lifted all the main slices of the global markets.

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US plans to roll out new sanctions on Iran: Bloomberg
Trump: deportations to start in 2 weeks without immigration reform: Politico
How this week’s Trump-Xi meeting could influence markets: MW
Bonds, stocks and currencies moving in sync more often: WSJ
German business sentiment continues to deteriorate in June: Reuters
Turkey’s Erdogan suffers political setback in Istanbul election: Reuters
If value investing’s dead, here’s why: CNBC
PMI survey data shows US economic output virtually flat in June: IHS Markit
US existing home sales rebounded in May: MW

● Not Working: Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone?
By David G. Blanchflower
Summary via publisher (Princeton U. Press)
Don’t trust low unemployment numbers as proof that the labor market is doing fine—it isn’t. Not Working is about those who can’t find full-time work at a decent wage—the underemployed—and how their plight is contributing to widespread despair, a worsening drug epidemic, and the unchecked rise of right-wing populism. In this revelatory and outspoken book, David Blanchflower draws on his acclaimed work in the economics of labor and well-being to explain why today’s postrecession economy is vastly different from what came before. He calls out our leaders and policymakers for failing to see the Great Recession coming, and for their continued failure to address one of the most unacknowledged social catastrophes of our time. Blanchflower shows how many workers are underemployed or have simply given up trying to find a well-paying job, how wage growth has not returned to prerecession levels despite rosy employment indicators, and how general prosperity has not returned since the crash of 2008.
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After stumbling in May, technology stocks have rebounded sharply in June, regaining this year’s crown for top-performing US equity sector, based on a set of exchange traded funds.

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Trump approved strike on Iran, then cancels attack: CNBC
Hong Kong protests resume over controversial extradition bill: CNN
Eurozone growth remains weak but output picks up (slightly) in June: IHS Markit
Japanese mfg conditions weaken in June; new orders fall sharply: IHS Markit
US stock market (S&P 500) closes at record high after Fed’s rate-cut hints: WSJ
Philly Fed Mfg Index falls sharply in June, signals near-neutral reading: MW
US jobless claims fell last week, pointing to strong labor market: CB
Gold surges to six-year high:

A US official confirmed that a surface-to-air missile shot down an American drone over the Strait of Hormuz, the gateway to the Persian Gulf, a critical shipping lane for oil exports from the Middle East. Iran also said that it shot down a drone as a warning to the US. The news threatens to further escalate rising tension between the US and Iran. Here’s a summary of key issues on this still-evolving story:

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