Economic activity for the US appears headed for a second quarterly slowdown in the final three months of this year. The projection is based on a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The current median estimate: a 2.7% increase in real growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate), which is slightly below the previous outlook published in early November.
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Will Russia-Ukraine fight over sea passage trigger wider war? NY Times
US-China trade deal prospects dim after Trump’s comments: CNN
Early signs suggest China’s economy slowed for 6th month in Nov: Bloomberg
Trump dismisses climate-based econ warning in his administration’s report: BBC
Trump: UK-EU Brexit agreement could threaten US-UK trade deal: CNBC
House GOP rolls out huge tax bill for lame-duck Congress: Politico
GM announces hefty worker cuts and plant closures: CNN
Strong job market lifts Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index in Nov: MW

US investment-grade bonds were the exception, courtesy of a flat performance. Otherwise, the rest of the major asset classes fell last week during a wave of selling, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
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Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships off Crimean Peninsula: BBC
Russia reopens Kerch Strait to shipping after seizing Ukrainian naval ships: Reuters
EU approves UK’s Brexit deal: BBC
US shuts major crossing with Mexico as migrants rush border: WaPo
Global markets rebound on Monday: MW
Businesses consider Democratic proposals to raise corporate tax rate: The Hill
Eurozone growth slips to four-year low in Nov, according to PMI data: IHS Markit
US Composite PMI signals points to moderate growth in November: IHS Markit
US Treasury inflation forecast via 5yr Notes tumbled to 1.77%–lowest this year:

Recession risk for the US remains low at the moment, but the signs are piling up that economic growth is slowing. The nine-year-old expansion will remain intact through the end of the year and persist into the early months of 2019, but next year’s second quarter-plus looks wobbly.
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Trump and China President Xi prepared for trade talks next week: Bloomberg
Hillary Clinton tells Europe to curb migration for political reasons: Politico
Tensions rise as migrants mass at US-Mexico border: Reuters
Oil prices fall to 2018 low despite OPEC plans for ouput cut: Reuters
Trump’s feud with Chief Justice Roberts spills over to Thanksgiving: The Hill
Eurozone business activity in Nov grows at slowest rate in four years: IHS Markit
US jobless claims rose to 4-month high last week: CNBC
Existing home sales in US posted largest annual slide in four years in Oct: WSJ
Decline in US durable goods orders for Oct point to softer growth in Q4: WSJ
Leading economic index predicts US expansion will moderate: MW
US consumer sentiment remains elevated after second monthly dip: MW

The widespread selling in equity markets around the world has left most regions in the red for year-to-date performance, based on a set of exchange-traded funds as of yesterday’s close (Nov. 20). The conspicuous exception: stocks in the Middle East. The US market, which has fallen sharply in recent weeks, is holding on to a fractional gain for 2018, but the razor-thin increase is no match for the still-solid increase so far this year for markets in the Middle East
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Trump inclined to give Saudis a pass on Khashoggi killing: The Hill
Trump responds to special counsel over alleged Russian meddling: BBC
Stock market’s slide may be a warning on the economy: NY Times
China’s gov’t tells economists to consider state’s interests: Bloomberg
China expanding island-building in South China Sea, report claims: Reuters
Philippines signals closer ties with China: CNN
US GDPNow Q4 estimate slips to moderate +2.5% pace: Atlanta Fed
US housing starts rebounded in Oct, but annual change turned negative: HW