The surge in US economic output in the second quarter is expected to moderate in Q3, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median estimate continues to anticipate a healthy 3.2% increase for Q3, slightly below the median projection in late-August.
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Hurricane Florence hammers Carolinas: Fox
Turkey sharply raised interest rates to fight inflation, weak currency: CNBC
Eurozone labor costs rise at fastest pace in nearly 6 years: Reuters
Gov’t shutdown risk may be rising for US as Sep 30 budget deadline nears: Vox
Shiller: US stocks could rise a lot more before correcting: Bloomberg
US consumer inflation eased in Aug, first downshift in annual pace this year: BBG
Jobless claims in US tick down, at 49-year low: MarketWatch
US is now world’s largest crude oil producer: US Energy Dept

Stock markets in the Middle East continue to hold a modest edge over US equities in the year-to-date horse race for regional stock-market performances. The gap is closing, however, in favor of American shares after a bout of weakness in Middle Eastern prices, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.
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Carolinas brace for Hurricane Florence: CNN
Hong Kong prepares for Super Typhoon Mangkhut: South China Morning Post
US seeking to restart trade talks with China: CNBC
European Parliament votes to sanction Hungary: Reuters
US jets intercept Russian bombers near Alaska for 2nd time this month: BI
Trump’s high disapproval rating contrasts with strong US economy: Bloomberg
Bridgewater’s Dalio: US recession likely within 2 years: Bloomberg
Business inflation expectations steady at 2.2% in Sep: Atlanta Fed
Fed: some businesses delay investment due to trade concerns: Reuters
Wholesale inflation in US continues to weak for annual pace: MarketWatch

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates again later this month, but if that’s another signal that headwinds are building for fixed-income securities the warning isn’t resonating in the junk bond market these days.
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US industry groups set to fight US policy on trade tariffs: Reuters
Russia starts its largest war games since Soviet Union fell: Reuters
Russia’s oil minister: US trade war against China is headwind for oil market: CNBC
Hurricane Florence strengthens as it approaches US East Coast: Bloomberg
China’s export hub feels pressure from trade war with US: SCMP
Democrats still poised to retake House in November election: FiveThirtyEight
Optimism among small US business owners rises to record high in August: MW
US job openings surge to record high for July: CNBC

How old is the bull market in US stocks? By some accounts, we’re knee-deep in the oldest run on record. But some analysts beg to differ. Thanks to several possibilities for measuring such things, there’s a debate about the appropriate methodology for dating the age of the current run-up in stock prices. Here’s one more: measuring the bull market from the point when the last NBER-defined recession ended. By that measure, the current rise is the second longest on record, based on modern history of the S&P 500 (since the mid-1950s).
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11 September 2001

China to ask WTO for sanctions on US in trade dispute: Reuters
Former PBOC gov: US tariffs bringing Russia and China closer: CNBC
US Southeast coast braces for Hurricane Florence: CNN
Trump adviser threatens Syria if chemical weapons used: Time
World hunger rises as climate change curbs access to food: Bloomberg
N. Korea’s Kim asks Trump for a second summit: BBC
Many Americans still struggling a decade after financial crisis: LA Times
Are junk bonds a “new safe haven” for investors? MarketWatch
US consumer credit rose at 5.1% annual rate in July: MarketWatch

Selling weighed on all the main categories of global markets last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products. The biggest slide: stocks in emerging markets.
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