Recession risk for the US remains low at the moment, but the signs are piling up that economic growth is slowing. The nine-year-old expansion will remain intact through the end of the year and persist into the early months of 2019, but next year’s second quarter-plus looks wobbly.
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Trump and China President Xi prepared for trade talks next week: Bloomberg
Hillary Clinton tells Europe to curb migration for political reasons: Politico
Tensions rise as migrants mass at US-Mexico border: Reuters
Oil prices fall to 2018 low despite OPEC plans for ouput cut: Reuters
Trump’s feud with Chief Justice Roberts spills over to Thanksgiving: The Hill
Eurozone business activity in Nov grows at slowest rate in four years: IHS Markit
US jobless claims rose to 4-month high last week: CNBC
Existing home sales in US posted largest annual slide in four years in Oct: WSJ
Decline in US durable goods orders for Oct point to softer growth in Q4: WSJ
Leading economic index predicts US expansion will moderate: MW
US consumer sentiment remains elevated after second monthly dip: MW

The widespread selling in equity markets around the world has left most regions in the red for year-to-date performance, based on a set of exchange-traded funds as of yesterday’s close (Nov. 20). The conspicuous exception: stocks in the Middle East. The US market, which has fallen sharply in recent weeks, is holding on to a fractional gain for 2018, but the razor-thin increase is no match for the still-solid increase so far this year for markets in the Middle East
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Trump inclined to give Saudis a pass on Khashoggi killing: The Hill
Trump responds to special counsel over alleged Russian meddling: BBC
Stock market’s slide may be a warning on the economy: NY Times
China’s gov’t tells economists to consider state’s interests: Bloomberg
China expanding island-building in South China Sea, report claims: Reuters
Philippines signals closer ties with China: CNN
US GDPNow Q4 estimate slips to moderate +2.5% pace: Atlanta Fed
US housing starts rebounded in Oct, but annual change turned negative: HW

The hard data on the US housing market has been weakening for most of this year but the blowback for sentiment in the homebuilder industry has been mild – until now.
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Federal judge bars Trump administration from enforcing asylum ban: Fox
Pelosi’s bid for Speaker on the House in jeopardy: Politico
Trump set to list Venezuela as state sponsor of terrorism: The Hill
Parts of Northern California suffering with record-high air pollution: WF Today
Troops at U.S.-Mexican border set to start coming home: Politico
Study predicts climate change will spawn multiple disasters at once: CBS
Global markets extend slide on Tuesday: Bloomberg
Bitcoin below $4500, tumbling 30% in a week: Reuters
Survey: economists estimate US recession risk at 35% over next 2 years: Reuters
US homebuilder sentiment for Nov falls to lowest level in over 2 years: CNBC

And then there was one. The slow grind of selling in global markets this year has left the US equity market with the lone positive total return for the trailing one-year trend among the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products through last week’s close.
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VP Pence’s tough talk on China fans fears of new Cold War: Bloomberg
EU tells UK that Brexit deal can’t be renegoitated: Reuters
UK’s May headed for political battle with party rebels over Brexit: AP
Northern California wildfire death toll rises to 77; 10,000 homes burned: KGO-TV
Anti-caravan protesters march in Tijuana, Mexico: SDUT
Skeptics question the yield curve’s predictive powers: Bloomberg
US mfg sector faces a shortage of skilled workers: MIT Technology Review
Vanguard: US core inflation to hold near 2%, possibly slipping in 2019: Vanguard
KC Fed Mfg Index points to stronger growth for sector in November: KC Fed
US industrial output’s annual growth decelerated to 4.1% in Oct: MW

● Money and Government: The Past and Future of Economics
By Robert Skidelsky
Summary via publisher (Yale University Press)
The dominant view in economics is that money and government should play only minor roles in economic life. Economic outcomes, it is claimed, are best left to the “invisible hand” of the market. Yet these claims remain staunchly unsettled. The view taken in this important new book is that the omnipresence of uncertainty makes money and government essential features of any market economy. Since Adam Smith, classical economics has espoused non-intervention in markets. The Great Depression brought Keynesian economics to the fore; but stagflation in the 1970s brought a return to small-state orthodoxy. The 2008 global financial crash should have brought a reevaluation of that stance; instead the response has been punishing austerity and anemic recovery. This book aims to reintroduce Keynes’s central insights to a new generation of economists, and embolden them to return money and government to the starring roles in the economic drama that they deserve.
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