Republicans say FBI report exonerates Kavanaugh, paves way for vote: WaPo
Rising bond yields in US are weighing on markets around the world: Reuters
Tech stocks in US slump to 15-month low: Bloomberg
Emerging-market stocks headed for worst weekly loss since Feb: Reuters
Economists expect a solid gain in today’s US jobs report for September: Reuters
US job cuts up sharply in Sep to second-highest monthly print this year: CG&C
August factory orders in US post biggest gain in 11 months: Reuters
10yr Treasury yield continued rising on Thurs, reaching 3.19%–highest since 2011:
10-Year Treasury Yield Surges To Seven-Year High
If there was any doubt that a regime of rising interest rates has arrived, the Treasury market on Wednesday dispatched a wake-up call.
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Macro Briefing: 4 October 2018
Federal judge blocks deportations planned by Trump adminstration: USA Today
Vice President Pence set to give provocative speech on China: CNN
FBI delivered Kavanaugh report to White House: Reuters
Key Kavanaugh vote in Senate set for Friday: The Hill
Fed chief: US expansion can continue ‘for quite some time’: Bloomberg
Global growth slowed to 2-year low in Sep, according to PMI data: IHS Markit
ADP: US companies added 230,000 jobs in Sep, most since Feb: MW
ISM Non-Mfg Index jumped to 21-year high in September: Reuters
Services PMI slipped to 8-month low in Sep: IHS Markit
10-year Treasury yield spiked to seven-year high: 3.15%: CNBC
Strong US GDP Growth Expected To Moderate In Third Quarter
Economic output for the US is on track to post a slower-but-still-healthy gain in the preliminary GDP report for the third quarter that’s scheduled for publication later this month. The outlook is based on a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median Q3 estimate: a 3.2% increase, unchanged from the analysis in mid-September.
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Macro Briefing: 3 October 2018
FBI’s investigation of Kavanaugh may end today: Fox
Senate GOP looking to schedule Kavanaugh vote this week: The Hill
Investigation reveals tax-dodging schemes enriched Trump: NY Times
NY launches investigation into Trump’s taxes after NY Times story: MW
US NATO rep: US may ‘take out” Russian missiles if Moscow violates treaty: CNN
Fed Chair Powell: US economy in “remarkably positive” period: WaPo
India’s currency falls to record low: CNBC
RBC survey: 90% of investors say ESG portfolios match/beat non-ESG: P&I
Small-cap stocks (Russell 2000 Index) fell to 2-month low on Tuesday:
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 October 2018
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) was unchanged in September, holding steady at an annualized 5.0% — matching the estimate in the previous month. The performance forecast for GMI (an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes) reflects the premium over the projection for the “risk-free” rate for the long run.
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Macro Briefing: 2 October 2018
Key differences in Trump’s replacement for Nafta: CNBC
Trump appears set for protracted economic war with China: Bloomberg
US Navy reports ‘unsafe’ encounter with a Chinese warship: CNN
US air strikes in Somalia target militants: Reuters
McConnell: Senate to vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination this week: The Hill
US construction spending up 0.1% in Aug, led by public sector: MW
ISM Mfg Index for US slipped in Sep after 14-year high the month before: CNBC
US Mfg PMI rose to 4-month high in Sep: IHS Markit
WTI crude oil jumps to four-year high: MW
Major Asset Classes | September 2018 | Performance Review
Broadly defined commodities led the performance horse race in September for the major asset classes. The return marked the first monthly advance for commodities since May, which was also the last time that raw materials writ large led the field.
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Macro Briefing: 1 October 2018
US and Canada reach agreement on Nafta trade deal: LA Times
New questions arise over FBI investigation of Kavanaugh: CNN
Iran launches missile attack on militants in eastern Syria: CNN
Hurricane Rosa threatens Phoenix: Newsweek
Death toll surges in Indonesia from earthquake and tsunami: CBS
Sec. of Defense Mattis cancels trip to China amid rising tensions: CNN
Trump administration sues California over its net neutrality law: TechCrunch
Brent oil jumps to 4-year high ahead of Iran sanctions: Reuters
Two-thirds of business economists see US recession by late-2020: Bloomberg
The mini recession of 2015-2016 explains a lot: NY Times
Consumer sentiment reading for US in Sep revised down to still-strong level: CNBC
Chicago PMI dips to five-month low in Sep: MW
US consumer spending posted smallest gain in six months in Aug: MW
Book Bits | 29 September 2018
● AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order
By Kai-Fu Lee
Q&A with author via Recode
Former Google China president Kai-Fu Lee is betting heavily on artificial intelligence; his investment firm Sinovation Ventures has invested more than $600 million in computer vision, machine learning and other forms of automation. And he’s confident that soon this technology will dramatically change the job landscape.
“If we look at what AI cannot do, there are really two main things,” Lee said on the latest episode of Recode Decode, hosted by Kara Swisher. “One is creative jobs. Jobs like scientists, storytellers, artists and so on. And the other are the compassionate people who really have created a human-to-human connection, trust.”
And what about the jobs that require low creativity and compassion?
“All those jobs will be taken by AI,” he said.
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