Macro Briefing: 8 February 2018

Senate leaders agree to 2-year spending deal: NY Times
Pro-government forces in Syria attack US troops: WaPo
Dallas Fed President: US growth could slip over next 2 years: Reuters
Dept of Homeland Security: Russians penetrated US voter systems: CNBC
Canada Prime Minister raises doubts about revising NAFTA with US: Reuters
US consumer credit increased to a record $3.84 trillion (s.a.) in Dec: MarketWatch
Late-day rise in Treasury yields coincides with late-day slide in stocks: Bloomberg
10-yr T-Note yield rebounds to 2.84%, matching Monday’s 4-yr high: Treasury.gov

Macro Briefing: 7 February 2018

House OKs bill to avoid US gov’t shutdown, but Senate approval is unclear: Politico
US trade deficit for 2017 at highest level since 2008: The Hill
Trump favors shutdown if Dems don’t agree to immigration demands: The HIll
Germany’s main parties end deadlock and form coalition: Reuters
US job openings fall to seven-month low in Dec: Bloomberg
Growth outlook for UK ticks up: MNI
Market crash claims its first victims for VIX-linked products: Bloomberg 
Analyst Ed Yardeni remains bullish on outlook for equities: Yardeni.com
GDPNow model projects strong 4.0% gain for US GDP in Q1: Atlanta Fed

Macro Briefing: 6 February 2018

World stock markets continue to dive on Tuesday: Reuters
Monday’s 1175-point Dow slide is a record for absolute declines: WSJ
Global policy makers react to stock market plunge: Bloomberg
Re-evaluating the wisdom of tax cuts after the market slide: NY Times
US ISM Non-Mfg Index surges in Jan, near 10-year high: CNBC
PMI: US services sector growth eases to nine-month low in Jan: IHS Markit
Survey data shows global economic growth at 40-mo high in Jan: IHS Markit

Macro Briefing: 5 February 2018

Global stock markets fall on Monday amid inflation fears and rising rates: Reuters
What’s behind Friday’s sharp slide in US stocks? Politico
Powell, to be sworn in today as new Fed chair, faces new economic risks: AP
US employment jumps 200k in January as wage growth accelerates: BI
US Consumer Sentiment Index dips in Jan but still near all-time high: CNBC
Factory orders rise for fifth straight month in December: Reuters
Outgoing Fed chair says Prices `High’ for Stocks, Comm. Real Estate: Bloomberg
PMI survey: Eurozone economic growth nears 12-year high in January: IHS Markit
10-year Treasury yield rises to 2.84%, a four-year high: MarketWatch

Reviewing Last Week’s Stock Market Decline In Historical Context

How bad was last week’s rout in US equities? The slide is the biggest weekly drop for the S&P 500 Index in over two years. But that’s not saying much, given how calm the upside bias for the equity trend has been lately. Perhaps the bigger surprise is that we’ve gone so long without a meaningful setback. But don’t be too quick to dismiss the latest fall from grace as insignificant. A deeper review of the numbers reveals that the S&P’s 3.9% slump over the five trading days through Feb. 2 marks one of the deepest on record for the past six decades-plus.
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Book Bits | 3 February 2018

The Growth Delusion: Wealth, Poverty, and the Well-Being of Nations
By David Pilling
Review via Kirkus Reviews
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell,” the environmental curmudgeon Edward Abbey was fond of saying. One suspects that Financial Times associate editor Pilling would endorse the view, though he puts things less stridently in this studied look at economic growth and its measures and mismeasures. “Economics,” he writes, “can present a distorted view of the world.” True enough, especially because a sine qua non of modern economics is gross domestic product, a calculation of all the things that happen in an economy. But as the author memorably notes, GDP is morally indifferent: it “likes pollution,” because money is spent to clean up environmental messes, and “likes crime because it is fond of large police forces and repairing broken windows.” War and catastrophe? No problem, from a GDP point of view. Pilling examines some of the ways that renegade economists have proposed to consider the true health of an economy, with all the externalities of economic activity taken into account, from various equations to happiness rankings to the Genuine Progress Index, one of the more interesting “measures of economic welfare.”
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US Hiring Rebounds In January But One-Year Trend Eases

Companies in the US added 196,000 workers in January, according to this morning’s report from the Labor Department. The gain beat expectations for a 172,000 increase, according to Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. The stronger print for the private sector isn’t really a surprise, considering the upbeat gain in the ADP Employment Report for January that was released earlier in the week. Today’s results reflect ongoing strength in the labor market, but the annual trend continues to signal that job growth, while still healthy, continues to decelerate.
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