Geopolitical risk is rising, but if there’s a price to pay in terms of sharply softer economic growth or worse for the US it’s not showing up in the numbers, at least not yet. With most of the July data published the macro profile remains upbeat and near-term projections suggest the positive trend will persist.
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US Treasury Sec: Turkey faces more sanctions without pastor’s release: Bloomberg
China’s weak currency will be in focus in trade talks with US: CNBC
US Attorney General issues order to accelerate deportations: Reuters
China “training for strikes” on US targets, Pentagon report warns: BBC
Walmart reports best sales growth in a decade: CNN
Is US economic growth peaking? MarketWatch
US housing starts edged up in July but fell vs. year-earlier level: MW
Jobless claims fell last week, near post-recession low: WSJ
Philly Fed Mfg Index slumps in August to lowest level in 21 months: MW

The recent turmoil in emerging markets hasn’t deterred the Federal Reserve from lifting interest rates at next month’s monetary policy meeting, according to analysts, Fed funds futures, and the recent trend in inflation-adjusted base money supply.
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Senior Chinese officials to visit US for trade talks: Politico
Trump revokes former CIA Director Brennan’s security clearance: The Hill
US retail spending up more than expected in July: LA Times
Growth in US industrial output slowed sharply in July: CNBC
NY Fed Mfg Index posted solid gain for August: NY Fed
Business inflation expectations remain steady at 2.1% for Aug: Atlanta Fed
US builder confidence in Aug fell to lowest level in 2018: HousingWire
Productivity in US jumped to highest level in over 3 years in Q2: MW
Benchmark 10yr Treasury yield trending lower again, dipping to one-month low:

A Forbes columnist last week warned that asset allocation is falling on hard times. Rob Isbitts, founder and chief investment officer of Sungarden Investment Research, writes that “if you started investing in a typical asset allocation strategy any time since mid-2012, your returns have been progressively worse.” Using a set of BlackRock asset allocation ETFs as evidence, he says the standard asset allocation strategy has “lost its mojo.”
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A hodgepodge of results for Dems and GOP in Tuesday’s primaries: Politico
Turkey raises tariffs on US imports as banking authorities support lira: Reuters
US warns of more tariffs for Turkey if pastor isn’t freed: Reuters
Democrats and Republicans shunning capitalism: Yahoo Finance
Are US trade tariffs on China part of a grander strategic policy? SCMP
Be wary of using one indicator for factor analysis: ETF.com
US stock market rise is close to longest bull market on record: LPL
US small business optimism in July edged up to 2nd highest level in 45 years: NFIB
Active management’s death has been greatly exaggerated: Barry Ritholtz
US y-o-y import prices tick up to 6-1/2-year high in July: MarketWatch

The first official third-quarter report on US GDP is more than two months away, but the preliminary nowcasts point to a softer-but-still-solid gain, based on several estimates compiled by The Capital Spectator. The question is whether escalating trade-war tension and Turkey’s financial crisis that’s roiling emerging markets will take a bite out of the rosy projections for the US?
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Fed expected to keep raise rates despite economic turmoil in Turkey: Bloomberg
European banks remain under pressure amid Turkey’s currency crisis: Reuters
Strategists outline four paths to resolve Turkey’s financial crisis: MarketWatch
Slower credit growth in China raises economic concern: Bloomberg
US passed a new law that strengthens govt’s hand in foreign business deals: BBC
W. Virginia lawmakers vote to impeach 4 justices on state’s highest court: The Hill
Congressional Budget Office trims forecast for US economic growth: CBO
Vanguard FTSE Emg Markets ETF (VWO) near 1yr low as Turkey’s crisis deepens:

US investment-grade bonds were spared losses last week. Otherwise, red ink spilled across the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
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World equity markets drop to 1-month low amid Turkish currency crisis: Reuters
Turkey begins to bolster financial system after currency plunge: Bloomberg
North and South Korean leaders agree to meet for 3rd time: CNN
Euro falls to 13-month low: Reuters
Indian rupee traded at record low vs. dollar on Monday: CNBC
Vanguard sees US recession risk rising: NY Times
US core inflation up by the most in July in 10 years: Bloomberg
Rising concerns about trade tariffs transcend political parties in US: UoM