Indonesia authorities call for 100,000 to evacuate after volcano erupts: Guardian
A possible gov’t shutdown and other challenges confront Congress in Dec: Politico
Holiday shopping season starts strong, driven by strong rise in online sales: RTT
ECB warns that “fake data” threatens economic and financial stability: Reuters
South Africa’s credit rating cut to junk status by S&P: RTT
US growth eases in Nov via PMI data but still running at “solid” pace: IHS Markit
Bitcoin approaching $10,000: Bloomberg
Drilling triggers a surge in earthquakes in Texas and other states: SciAm
Book Bits | 25 November 2017
● Secrecy World: Inside the Panama Papers Investigation of Illicit Money Networks and the Global Elite
By Jake Bernstein
Summary via publisher (Henry Holt)
A hidden circulatory system flows beneath the surface of global finance, carrying trillions of dollars from drug trafficking, tax evasion, bribery, and other illegal enterprises. This network masks the identities of the individuals who benefit from these activities, aided by bankers, lawyers, and auditors who get paid to look the other way. In Secrecy World, the Pulitzer Prize winning investigative reporter Jake Bernstein explores this shadow economy and how it evolved, drawing on millions of leaked documents from the files of the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca—a trove now known as the Panama Papers—as well as other journalistic and government investigations. Bernstein shows how shell companies operate, how they allow the superwealthy and celebrities to escape taxes, and how they provide cover for illicit activities on a massive scale by crime bosses and corrupt politicians across the globe.
Continue reading
Tech-Stock Momentum Accelerates
Technology shares have surged recently, leaving the rest of US equity sectors in the dust, based on a set of ETFs. Sector leadership appeared to be shifting to tech from financials at the end of last month. Nearly four weeks later, the transition is complete and there’s no doubt which sector dominates the upside momentum rankings for one-year performances.
Continue reading
Macro Briefing: 24 November 2017
Next week will be crucial for GOP’s tax plan: Bloomberg
Zimbabwe’s first new President in 37 years takes power: BBC
German business optimism rises to record on economic growth: Bloomberg
US Consumer Sentiment Index edges up in Nov, close to decade high: CNBC
US durable goods orders slide 1.2% in October: USA Today
Jobless claims fall in US for first time in 3 weeks: Reuters
Fed minutes reflect optimism on US growth outlook: CNBC
Is US heading into a record holiday shopping season? Fox News
FAANG and other tech stocks have surged this year: ReCode
Happy Thanksgiving!
5 Questions For Bob Dieli, NoSpinForecast.com
The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten, which is widely viewed as a warning sign for the economy. The 10-year/2-year spread fell to 59 basis points on Tuesday (Nov. 21), the lowest in a decade. But the US economic profile looks solid. The mixed messages have more than a few analysts and investors scratching their heads. For some perspective, The Capital Spectator chatted with Bob Dieli, an economist at RDLB, Inc., a boutique consultancy that publishes business-cycle analysis at www.NoSpinForecast.com.
Continue reading
Macro Briefing: 22 November 2017
FCC releases plan to repeal regs that ensure equal access to internet: NY Times
Fed is concerned that US labor market may be overheating: Bloomberg
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index rises sharply in Oct: Chicago Fed
US existing home sales up 2% in Oct: Reuters
Optimism continues to lift world equity markets: Reuters
Vanguard projects stock returns of 4%-6% for medium term: CNBC
Blackrock: Flattening yield curve isn’t a warning sign for the US economy: CNBC
10-Year/2-Year Treasury spread falls to 59 basis points, lowest since 2007:
US Business Cycle Risk Report | 21 November 2017
US economic activity continues to trend solidly positive in the latest roundup of numbers. In turn, recession risk remains virtually nil, based on the available data through October. The near-term outlook looks upbeat, too, suggesting that the recent strength in GDP growth will continue in the fourth quarter.
Continue reading
Macro Briefing: 21 November 2017
Justice Dept files lawsuit to block AT&T/Time-Warner merger: Bloomberg
Trump administration ends residency status for 59,000 Haitians: NY Times
Trump promises “huge tax cut for Christmas”: AP
US Leading Economic Index rose more than expected in October: CNBC
Fed Chair Yellen will leave board when successor is sworn in: Reuters
2-Year Treasury yield rises to 1.77%–highest level since 2008:
Foreign Bonds Bounced Back Last Week
Fixed-income markets in developed and emerging nations topped the winners list last week for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. The gains mark the second week of flat to higher prices after two months of a downtrend for offshore bonds.
Continue reading