News reports covering yesterday’s April report on consumer inflation emphasize that the monthly increase fell short of the consensus forecast. The cooler-than-expected gain is cited by some analysts as a factor that will allow the Federal Reserve to slow its plans for raising interest rates. Perhaps, but reviewing the annual pace of inflation and the latest estimates for GDP growth in the second quarter suggests that it’s premature to assume that the central bank is set to back off its recent plans for three or four rate hikes this year.
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ISIS still a threat ahead of Iraq’s election on Saturday: USA Today
Iran supports Syria’s right to respond to Israel’s attacks: Reuters
Oil on track for 2nd weekly gain amid rising Mideast tensions: Bloomberg
Is Trump walking into a trap in upcoming N. Korea meeting? Politico
US jobless claims remain low, sticking close to 49-year low: MW
US consumer inflation ticks up to 2.5% annual rate in April: Reuters
Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged: Independent
US stock market rally continues with S&P 500 near 2-month high: Reuters

Predicting recessions is difficult bordering on impossible, but one prediction you can count on is that there will always be a surplus of newly minted warnings that a new downturn is near. Periodically I review recent examples (here’s last year’s update and its predecessor in 2016) and it’s time for a fresh look at how analysts continually convince themselves that the risk of economic contraction appears to be threatening.
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Israel fires missiles at Iranian targets in Syria: BBC
Trump meets 3 Americans freed from North Korea: The Hill
Trump’s decision on Iran echoes prelude to Iraq war, some analysts say: Reuters
Saudi Arabia will pursue nuclear weapons if Iran does: CNN
China set to benefit if West isolates Iran: Bloomberg
Wholesale US inflation for April eased to 2.6% y-o-y from 3.0%: MarketWatch
A measure of US wholesale trade continued to grow in March: CNBC
Atlanta Fed president: inflation “already effectively on target”: MNI
US corporations facing massive $4 trillion refinancing wall: Bloomberg

The strategy of favoring low-priced stocks over their high-price counterparts has been floundering in recent years, inspiring some investors to give up on the value tilt for money management. But a recent run of reporting suggests that a new dawn may be at hand for this corner of investing.
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Trump pulls US out of Iran nuclear deal: CBS
Scrapping Iran nuclear deal could trigger oil blowback for US economy: Bloomberg
Europeans try to salvage Iran nuclear deal: Reuters
Kim-Xi talks suggest key role for China ahead of N. Korea meeting with Trump: AP
Trump’s attorney Cohen was hired by US affiliate of Russian firm: WaPo
AT&T says it paid Cohen for insights on Trump: CNBC
UK retail sales plummet in April: Bloomberg
House of Lords calls for UK to remain in EU’s single market: BBC
Small Business Optimism in US ticks up, near record level in April: NFIB
US job openings rise in March to a record 6.55 million: MarketWatch

For the first time in eight months, inflation-adjusted base money (aka M0) in the US contracted in March, slipping 3.7% vs. the year-ago level. The slide comes at a time when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is emphasizing that markets should be expecting gradual interest rate increases in the months ahead.
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Trump will announce decision on Iran nuclear deal today: Reuters
Iran’s currency near record lows ahead of Trump decision on nuclear deal: Reuters
More Venezuelan soldiers are deserting ahead of presidential election: Bloomberg
China’s trade surplus with US rises more than expected in April: CNBC
US consumer credit growth slowed in March to 6-month low: MW
Fed chairman: markets expect gradual rate hikes: Bloomberg
White House looking for bigger-than-expected spending cuts: Fiscal Times
Former Fed governor: the Fed should consider its own cryptocurrency: NY Times
US oil prices top $70 on Monday for first time since Nov 2017: Reuters

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the US again posted the biggest weekly gain among the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. The ongoing bounce for REITs contrasts with a generally down week for most markets over the five trading days through May 4.
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Lava flows from Hawaii’s volcano eruption intensify: ABC
Iran and Israel issue warnings as deadline nears for Iran nuclear deal: NY Times
N. Korea says Trump’s claims about upcoming summit are “misleading”: CBS
Oil prices rise to 3-1/2 year high: MarketWatch
Nafta trade talks face critical juncture this week: Reuters
Democrats under pressure to focus on economy: The Hill
US job growth rebounded in April after sluggish rise in March: Reuters
Germany’s manufacturing orders fell for 3rd month in March: MarketWatch
California to become first state to require solar panels in new homes: Tech Times
California’s economy now world’s 5th largest, ahead of UK: LA Times
PMI survey data shows global economic activity ticked up in April: IHS Markit