The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates today – at a time when the Treasury yield spread has become relatively compressed. That’s a warning sign, according to the historical record. The question is whether the shelf life for this analysis has expired?
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Is Inflation Strong Enough To Warrant Another Rate Hike?
The Federal Reserve is conducting a grand experiment in monetary policy that’s set to continue in tomorrow’s policy statement, which is expected to roll out another hike in interest rates. The experiment is tightening policy when inflation and employment growth are still low and perhaps heading lower.
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Most Markets Declined Last Week
The first full week of trading in June took a bite out of most markets. Only US real estate investment trusts (REITs) and broadly defined commodities bucked the downward trend for the major asset classes last week, based on a set of representative exchange-traded products.
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Book Bits | 10 June 2017
By Gary Smith
Review via NY Times
“Instead of trying to predict short-term zigs and zags in stock prices, value investors evaluate individual stocks and the market as a whole by looking for good companies that have low stock prices relative to their dividends, earnings and assets,” he writes….
Throughout the book, Mr. Smith provides financial formulas to help you identify value stocks, and his writing is clear and often clever. For example:
* “Bargains are not going to be found when investors are optimistic, but when they are pessimistic.”
* “Value investors do not buy metals — no matter how precious — because metals do not generate cash.”
* “It’s tempting to confuse a great company with a great stock.”
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Another Forecasting Lesson After The UK’s Surprising Election
UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s gamble to call an early general election has backfired, dealing Britain an unexpected outcome that’s dealt another blow to the so-called experts who anticipated that the Conservatives would gain seats in Parliament. Instead, the electorate confounded the polls and forecasting models and delivered a major setback to May’s government. Once again, there are lessons to be learned about the hazards of forecasting, although assuming that all efforts at diving the future are wrong isn’t one of them.
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Is Bitcoin A New Asset Class?
The astonishing bull market (bubble?) in Bitcoin has drawn attention to the cryptocurrency from all corners. One of the questions that’s reasonating: Should Bitcoin be treated as an asset class, on par with stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities?
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10-Year Treasury Yield Sinks As Futures Price In A Rate Hike
Fed funds futures are pricing in a near certainty of a rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, although you wouldn’t know it by looking at the 10-year Treasury yield, which has been sinking like a stone in recent weeks.
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US Q2 GDP Estimates Continue To Project Stronger Growth
US economic activity for the second quarter is on track to accelerate, according to several estimates. The official GDP report for Q2 is due in late-July, which means that there’s still a fair amount of uncertainty about the outlook for the final set of numbers for the current quarter. For the moment, however, most estimates continue to project a solid rebound following a sluggish 1.2% increase in Q1.
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Foreign REITs/Real Estate Top Weekly Performance List
Property shares and real estate investment trusts (REITs) outside the US grabbed the top spot among the major asset classes for the five-trading days through June 2, based on a set of representative exchange-traded products. The gain marks the fifth straight weekly advance for these shares.
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Book Bits | 3 June 2017
By Rick Wartzman
Review via Publishers Weekly
Wartzman, a senior advisor at the Drucker Institute, documents the deterioration of company-employee loyalty at some of America’s corporate giants in this insightful economic history. Identifying the “great American dream” as having a “good job”—a dream that’s increasingly precarious—he notes driving for Uber as a perfect example of many jobs in the U.S. today that involve no real, long-term commitment between employer and employee. He cites dismal statistics about many Americans being unprepared for retirement due to low pay, poor pension benefits, and increased medical costs, all while corporate earnings climb to historic highs. In order to understand how this came to pass, he examines four companies—General Electric, General Motors, Kodak, and Coca-Cola—over the past 70 years. He identifies a combination of factors as responsible for weakening the corporate social compact: globalization, company-wide spates of downsizing, ineffective unions, and more. Perhaps most significant is the elevation of shareholders over employees.
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