Senate approves Powell as Fed chairman: Bloomberg
CIA Director says N. Korea may use nukes for “coercive” purposes: CNN
Montana implements net neutrality rules following FCC repeal: The Hill 
Economists expect global growth to reach 8-year high in 2018: Reuters
US Treasury Secretary says a weaker dollar benefits US economy: Bloomberg
Is positive sentiment at Davos meeting a contrarian indicator? Guggenheim
One-sixth of millennials have saved $100,000 or more: USA Today
Richmond Fed Mfg Index: growth slows to 3-mo low in Jan: Richmond Fed
Employment up in half of US states in 2017; no change in other half: Labor Dept

US economic output remained strong in December, according to a review of key indicators. Echoing the profile in recent history, the numbers continue to reflect a virtually nil probability that a recession has started.
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Government shutdown ends as Trump signs funding bill into law: USA Today
Chasm between Dems and GOP widens after shutdown drama: Bloomberg
Trump announces 30% tariff on imported solar technology: The Hill
China has options for responding to Trump’s import tariffs: Bloomberg
IMF report advises that “global economic activity continues to firm up”: IMF
PA court decision on state’s congressional map gives Dems an edge: Politco
VP Pence announces accelerated US embassy move to Jersusalem: LA Times
Chicago Fed Nat’t Activity Index reflects faster US growth in Dec: Chicago Fed
10-year Treasury yield ticks up to 2.66%, highest since 2014: CNBC

Equities in emerging markets posted the strongest advance among the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products. US bonds, meanwhile, continued to slide, delivering last week’s biggest setback for broadly defined markets.
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US gov’t shutdown spills over into Monday: The Hill
Eric Trump tells Fox News shutdown is “good thing for us” politically: CBS
Turkish troops roll into Syria, toward US-backed Kurdish fighters: Bloomberg
US Consumer Sentiment Index dips to six-month low in January: Bloomberg
UK retail spending plunged in Dec following Black Friday surge: MNI
Oxfam: 82% of wealth created in 2017 went to world’s richest 1%: BBC
US gov’t shutdown history shows limited influence on stock market: MarketWatch
Hedge Fund Research: Hedge funds end 2017 with record-high assets: P&I
US asset flows in 2017 accelerated into passive while active retreated: Morningstar

The federal government remains shuttered for a second day, as of mid-afternoon on Sunday (Jan. 21), Washington time. Senate moderates are struggling to find a political solution, albeit without success so far. Meantime, what should we expect for economic blowback if the political stalemate endures?
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● The Tyranny of Metrics
Summary via publisher (Princeton University Press)
By Jerry Z. Muller
Today, organizations of all kinds are ruled by the belief that the path to success is quantifying human performance, publicizing the results, and dividing up the rewards based on the numbers. But in our zeal to instill the evaluation process with scientific rigor, we’ve gone from measuring performance to fixating on measuring itself. The result is a tyranny of metrics that threatens the quality of our lives and most important institutions. In this timely and powerful book, Jerry Muller uncovers the damage our obsession with metrics is causing–and shows how we can begin to fix the problem.
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Fama-French Factors and Business Cycles
Arnav Sheth and Tee Lim (Saint Mary’s College of California)
December 4, 2017
We examine the behavior of Fama-French factors across business cycles measured in various ways. We first split up the business cycles into four stages and examine the cumulative returns of factors in each of those stages. We then look at the behavior of the factors after a yield curve inversion starts and ends, as the relationship between yield curve inversions and recessions has been well-explored. We finally run a logistic regression to test the predictive power of the term spread on the NBER recession indicator. Our results show that there is an effect on the factors of each of our four stages, and there is limited predictive power from the recession probabilities. We believe this is of practical importance to portfolio managers who are factor-oriented in their approach.
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House approves funding bill to keep gov’t open, but Senate may block it: The Hill
International Energy Agency: US oil output set for “explosive growth: Bloomberg
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s acting dir requests zero funding: Politico
US housing starts down sharply in Dec but post solid gain for 2017: WSJ
US jobless claims tumble to lowest level since 1973: Bloomberg
US Treasury yields at highest levels since 2014: Reuters
Scientists document a century-long bull market in global temperatures: NY Times

Maybe it’s due to a global savings glut. Or perhaps fear continues to lurk in the hearts of overseas investors, inspiring a constant flow into safe-haven Treasuries in spite of firmer economic activity.
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