By Kenneth W. Gronbach with M.J. Moye
Interview with author via BlogCritics.org
Q: Your book is about predicting the future with accuracy. Can you explain why demographics provide clear evidence of where we’re headed?
A: Demographics precipitates economics — not the other way around. Commerce is reliant on market size, and market size is determined by demographics. Cultural shifts are determined by demographic changes. Demography is dependent on live births, deaths and migration, and so is politics. People are easy to count. It is math. So much of what people influence is determined by their number, their age, and where they are.
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Research Review | 21 April 2017 | Business Cycle Analysis
Is the Next Recession Around the Corner? Probably Not
Anton Cheremukhin (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
January 2017
A “profits recession” often predicts a real recession. A view of recessions as gluts of competition explains why this time a real recession is not imminent.
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Is The Recent Divergence Between Soft And Hard Data Unusual?
Judging by media, blogosphere, and Wall Street reports in recent weeks, it’s tempting to assume that the so-called soft economic data – surveys of spending plans, expectations, etc. – have become disconnected from reality, defined by the hard data, such as payrolls, sales, and production.
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US Business Cycle Risk Report | 19 April 2017
Economic growth is expected to slow in next week’s first-quarter GDP report, but the probability remains low that a new recession has started.
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Financials Stumble, But Still Lead Sectors For 1-Year Window
Financial stocks have been sliding over the last several weeks, but these companies remain comfortably in the lead for the trailing one-year return among US sectors, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Apr. 17.
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Spring (Break) Has Sprung
A brief holiday has commenced at The Capital Spectator’s world headquarters. The usual routine renews with a hey, and a ho, on Wednesday, April 19. Cheers!
Mixed Q1 GDP Estimates Cloud Economic Outlook
Projections for US economic growth in the first quarter continue to present a varied outlook, ranging from a sharp slowdown to a modest improvement. But if this is a reason for the central bank to delay interest rate hikes, there was no sign of concern in Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments on Monday.
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Real Estate Stocks Continue To Rebound
Foreign and US real estate equities extended March’s rally into the first week of April, generating the top performances among the major asset classes last week, based on a set representative exchange-traded products.
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Book Bits | 8 April 2017
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By Gordon Lafer
Summary via publisher (Cornell University Press)
In the aftermath of the 2010 Citizens United decision, it’s become commonplace to note the growing political dominance of a small segment of the economic elite. But what exactly are those members of the elite doing with their newfound influence? The One Percent Solution provides an answer to this question for the first time. Gordon Lafer’s book is a comprehensive account of legislation promoted by the nation’s biggest corporate lobbies across all fifty state legislatures and encompassing a wide range of labor and economic policies.
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US Employment Growth Slows Sharply In March
The private workforce grew by a weak 89,000 in March, the US Labor Department reports. The gain, which fell far short of the 221,000 increase for February, is well below what the crowd was expecting. Economists were looking for a moderate increase of 170,000 in private-sector employment last month, according to Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. Meanwhile, the strong ADP Employment Report for March hinted at even faster growth at the close of the third quarter. Today’s update from Washington, however, presents a dramatically softer tone for the US labor market.
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