● NAHB Index Unchanged in May, Pointing to Steady Housing Growth | WSJ
● NY Fed Mfg Index fell sharply in May | MarketWatch
● Corp bonds trouncing Treasuries in 2016 | Bloomberg
● Oil near 6-month high as outages support prices | Reuters
● The economic source of the current anger | WaPo

Economists are projecting growth for the monthly comparisons in tomorrow’s April updates on residential housing construction and industrial output in the US. But while the consensus forecasts are calling for an encouraging start for the second-quarter data, the implied one-year changes are still on track to stay negative.
Continue reading →

The Bank of England’s governor on Friday warned that Britain risked an economic recession if citizens voted to leave the European Union (EU) in next month’s referendum. “In that scenario we would expect a material slowing in growth, a notable rise in inflation, a challenging trade-off,” Mark Carney predicted at a news conference. Prudent advice from a sober-minded central banker? Or, as critics charge, a misguided effort to sway a democratic debate by pushing an institution that should remain above the fray into the political arena?
Continue reading →

Broadly defined commodities bounced higher last week, topping the performance list for the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy ETFs. iPath Bloomberg Commodity (DFP) increased 1.4% for the five trading days through May 13, delivering a relatively outsized gain vs. the rest of the field.
Continue reading →

● US Retail sales up 1.3% in Apr, biggest gain in a year | MarketWatch
● US Consumer Sentiment Index In May At 1yr High | Bloomberg
● US Business Inventories Rise More Than Expected In Mar | RTT
● GDPNow Q2 growth estimate for US jumps to +2.8% | Atlanta Fed
● NY Fed nowcast for US GDP growth in Q2: +1.2% | NY Fed
● China Ind Prod, Retail Sales Up Less Than Expected in Apr | RTT
● Yes, the IMF and 200-plus economists can be wrong | R. Bootle (Telegraph)

● Who Rules the World?
By Noam Chomsky
Summary via publisher (Metropolitan/Macmillan)
In an incisive, thorough analysis of the current international situation, Noam Chomsky argues that the United States, through its military-first policies and its unstinting devotion to maintaining a world-spanning empire, is both risking catastrophe and wrecking the global commons. Drawing on a wide range of examples, from the expanding drone assassination program to the threat of nuclear warfare, as well as the flashpoints of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Israel/Palestine, he offers unexpected and nuanced insights into the workings of imperial power on our increasingly chaotic planet.
Continue reading →

The Atlanta Fed this morning revised its GDP growth estimate for the second quarter up to 2.8%–a substantially stronger projection for economic output vs. the virtually flat 0.5% gain in Q1 (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The catalyst for today’s update: retail sales posted a strong rebound in April following a slump in March.
Continue reading →

Consumer spending revived in April after slumping in March, the US Census Bureau reports. Today’s update offers new support for arguing that economic growth will strengthen in the second quarter after virtually grinding to a halt in Q1, based on GDP data.
Continue reading →

The US stock market is looking wobbly again, but you wouldn’t know it by reviewing the trend in utility stocks. This interest-rate sensitive slice of equities continues to dominate the sector horse race, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Continue reading →

● US jobless claims hit 14-mo high; analysts blame Verizon strike | Reuters
● US Consumer Comfort Index Drops to 5-mo Low on Econ Views | Bloomberg
● US import prices rise 0.3% for 2nd straight month | MarketWatch
● Bank of England: Brexit slowdown could lead to recession | Reuters
● Growth in Germany Accelerates on Higher Consumption | NY Times
● UN cuts global economic growth forecast for 2016 | Reuters
● Battling the invisible but real hyperinflation monster | Scott Sumner (Econolog)