● US ISM Mfg Index falls below neutral 50 level | Bloomberg
● PMI: US mfg growth dips to 2-year low | Markit
● US auto sales increased in Nov | Reuters
● US construction spending rises to 8-year high in Oct | USN&WR
● Eurozone inflation remains at 0.1% YoY in Nov | MarketWatch
● PMI: Slow global mfg growth ticks lower in Nov | Markit
● Considering zero growth to battle climate change | NY Times

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 179,000 (seasonally adjusted) in November over the previous month in tomorrow’s update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a slightly lesser rise vs. October’s increase.
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Red ink swept across the major asset classes in November, with one exception: US equities. The Russell 3000 Index edged up 0.6% last month. Otherwise, losses prevailed, delivering a negative counterpoint to October’s generally bullish profile.
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● US Pending Home Sales Index inches higher in Oct | NAR
● Dallas Fed: factory output increases for 2nd month in Nov | WSJ
● PMI: Chicago business activity slips back into recession in Nov | MNI
● PMI: Eurozone mfg growth edges higher in Nov | Markit
● PMI: China mfg activity slips to 3-year low in Nov | Bloomberg
● German unemployment rate falls to record low in Nov | Bloomberg
● IMF adds China’s currency to elite reserve status | LA Times

The ISM Manufacturing Index for the US is expected to tick up to 50.2 in tomorrow’s update for November vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is fractionally above the neutral 50.0 mark. The estimate still translates into a forecast for growth for this benchmark of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector, but just barely.
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Real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the US took the lead in last week’s shortened holiday trading week for the major asset classes via a set of proxy ETFs. Vanguard REIT (VNQ) climbed nearly 1.0%, a comfortable edge over last week’s number-two performer for the four trading days through Friday, Nov. 27: Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), which tracks US equities.
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● PMI: US service sector growth rebounds in November | Markit
● US GDPNow Q4 growth estimate slips to 1.8% | Atlanta Fed
● Eurozone eco sentiment stable as inflation expectations tick higher | Reuters
● German retail spending dips in October | RTE
● German consumer confidence slips again in Dec forecast | RTT
● Japan’s industrial output rises for 2nd month in Oct | MNI

The rumors are true–a long holiday weekend
has been declared at the world headquarters
of The Capital Spectator.

After several days of feast and fête, the standard fare resumes on Monday, Nov. 30.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Consumer spending in the US continued to rise at a snail’s pace, rising 0.1% in October, according to this morning’s release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That’s the second month in a row for 0.1% growth, marking the weakest two-month period for consumption in eight months.
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Momentum has received a lot of attention in the asset-pricing literature over the past several decades, and for good reason. Trending behavior is a staple in markets. In contrast with other pricing “anomalies”, short-term return persistence—positive and negative—is a robust factor across asset classes. The fact that momentum is deployed far and wide in the money management industry and hasn’t been arbitraged away suggests that the persistence factor is persistent. The question is whether momentum as traditionally defined can be enhanced? Yes, according to a small but growing corner of research that looks at price trends through an “acceleration” lens.
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