● Consumer confidence rebounds in March | MarketWatch
● Janet Yellen: Fed Still Plans to Raise Rates but Carefully | NY Times
● Yellen comforts world stocks with cautious rate rise whispers | Reuters
● S&P/Case-Shiller: US home prices up 5.7% YoY in Mar | HousingWire
● US Redbook Sales at 11-week High | Economic Calendar
● US SS Investor Confidence Index ticks up to 6-mo high in Mar | State Street

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 178,000 (seasonally adjusted) in March over the previous month in tomorrow’s update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a moderately lesser increase vs. February’s gain.
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If the bear-market label doesn’t apply to the US stock market, the evidence will be forthcoming in weeks ahead. But that’s a high bar at the moment. The rally in recent weeks has recovered most of the year-to-date losses, but a bigger test awaits: regaining the strategic momentum that’s been MIA since last summer. The odds for success don’t look encouraging, leaving tactically minded investors with a simple question: Do you feel lucky?
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● US Q1 GDP growth projection stumbles to anemic 0.6% | Atlanta Fed
● Feb US consumer spending rise slightly; income growth slows | LA Times
● US trade deficit rose again in Feb | MarketWatch
● US pending home sales in Feb hit highest point since July | CBS MW
● Dallas Fed factory index in Mar least negative since Nov | Reuters

US personal income and spending ticked higher in February, but the year-over-year growth trend slowed on both counts, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. There’s still a positive trend in the numbers—enough to keep the economy expanding for the near-term future, but today’s numbers leave little room for arguing that growth is set to accelerate after what’s shaping up as a sluggish first quarter.
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The five-week streak of higher prices hit a wall last week for the major asset classes via a set of proxy ETFs. For the first time in over a month, losses dominated the trading week just passed. The four-day stretch through Mar. 24 (the Good Friday holiday trimmed the usual schedule) dispensed losses across the board—the broadest setback since early February.
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● US GDP growth in Q4:2015 revised up to 1.4% | BEA
● Consumer spending boosted 4Q growth | The Hill
● US corporate profits fall in 2015 for first time since 2008 | MarketWatch
● Q1:2016 GDP growth estimate stumbles to 1.4% via GDPNow Model | Atlanta Fed
● NABE survey: economists see slower US growth in 2016 | MNI
● Why hasn’t America’s economy recovered more robustly? | Time
● Global economy snapping back into gear? | FT (Gavyn Davies)

Speculative Fever: Investor Contagion in the Housing Bubble
Patrick J. Bayer (Duke University), et al.
February 1, 2016
Historical anecdotes of new investors being drawn into a booming asset market, only to suffer when the market turns, abound. While the role of investor contagion in asset bubbles has been explored extensively in the theoretical literature, causal empirical evidence on the topic is virtually non-existent. This paper studies the recent boom and bust in the U.S. housing market, and establishes that many novice investors entered the market as a direct result of observing investing activity of multiple forms in their own neighborhoods, and that “infected” investors performed poorly relative to other investors along several dimensions.
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● US Durable Goods Orders Dropped 2.8% in Feb | AP
● US Weekly Jobless Claims remain low but inched higher last week | RTT
● PMI: mild growth returns for US services sector in Mar | Markit
● KC Fed region mfg activity remains weak in Mar | KC Star
● US Consumer Comfort Index falls, revisiting 2016 low | Bloomberg
● CNBC analysis: Don’t trust those GDP numbers | CNBC