● US jobless claims rise, but stick close to 15-year low | Bloomberg
● US ISM Mfg Index in Sep slips to lowest level since January | WSJ
● US Mfg PMI in Sep at second-lowest level since Oct 2013 | Markit
● US construction spending in Aug rises to in over 7 years | USN&WR
● US consumer comfort index rises to highest level since mid-Jul | Bloomberg
● Global Mfg PMI growth dips to two-year low in Sep | Markit

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 177,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s September report from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a modest improvement over the weak 140,000 gain in August.
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One forecast for a weak US economy in the final months of the year just got weaker. The outlook for third-quarter GDP growth in the US was cut in half today in the widely followed GDPNow algorithm that’s published by the Atlanta Fed. The previous estimate for a 1.8% rise was already tepid–well below Q2’s solid 3.9% advance. But the new forecast for the third quarter quarter that begins today withered even further, slipping to a thin 0.9% (seasonally adjusted annual rate).
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US jobless claims rose last week, the Labor Department reports, although new filings remain close to four-decade lows. Despite the latest jump, today’s news suggests that the labor market is still expanding. As a result, any blowback from the recent turmoil in global markets and diminished expectations for the world economy has yet to make a serious dent in the forward momentum for the US macro trend.
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September was another rough month for most of the major asset classes. The main exception: US real estate investment trusts (REITs), which popped 3.0% last month (MSCI REIT Index). The safe haven of fixed income also provided some relief. Investment-grade bonds in the US and in foreign developed markets inched higher as renewed concerns about global growth convinced the crowd to run for cover. Otherwise, red ink was the dominant theme as the third quarter stumbled to an end.
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● ADP: US private payrolls rise a solid 200k in Sep | RTT
● US mortgage apps fell last week after previous surge | HousingWire
● Chicago PMI tumbles in September–lowest since 2009 | 24/7 Wall Street
● Official China Mfg PMI from gov’t ticks higher in September | CNBC
● IMF head sees another downgrade for global economic growth | NY Times
● Modest growth for Eurozone Mfg PMI in Sep Confirmed at 52.0 | Markit
● Markit’s China Mfg PMI revised up slightly to 47.2 | CNBC

The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to 50.6 in tomorrow’s update for September vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is fractionally above the neutral 50.0 mark. The estimate still translates into a forecast for growth for this benchmark of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector, but just barely.
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The pace of growth for private-sector employment picked up in September, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report. US companies added 200,000 jobs to payrolls last month, a moderately stronger gain vs. a revised increase of 187,000 in August. The upbeat numbers suggest that Friday’s official jobs report from Washington will also deliver encouraging numbers for September. Meantime, today’s data throws cold water on the notion that the US economy stumbled this month.
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Last Friday I reviewed some of the bearish signals that were casting dark shadows across the US stock market. This week’s trading activity through Tuesday isn’t helping. Drawdown for S&P 500 as of yesterday (Sep. 29) has slipped deeper into the red, falling to -11.6%. The slide below the -10% mark triggered another red signal for the Crash Risk Index (CRI), which is again flirting with a clear warning—five of its 10 components are in the danger zone. Another leg down in the market would tip the scale decisively into the red (assuming that the current profile hasn’t already sent you running for cover).
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● US consumer confidence index rises in September | Reuters
● US home prices rise at slightly faster annual rate in July | WSJ
● US exports fall 3.5% in July vs. year-earlier level | WSJ
● Redbook: US retail sales at chain stores fall 1.5% in Sep vs. year ago | DJ
● Eurozone headline inflation is negative in Sep | RTT
● Germany retail spending falls in Aug after strong July | MarketWatch