● US jobless claims rise but still point to stronger labor market | NY Times
● Challenger, Gray: US job cuts down 18% in Feb vs. Jan | CNBC
● US ISM Non-Mfg Index ticks lower in Feb | Reuters
● PMI: US Services Index dips below neutral mark in Feb | Markit
● Broad-based slowdown of global economic growth in Feb | Markit
● Consumer Comfort in US Falls to Lowest Level of the Year | Bloomberg

US private nonfarm payrolls in February are projected to increase by 182,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s Labor Dept. report over the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction represents a moderate rebound after the previous month’s sluggish increase.
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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to hold at a relatively low level in February. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 2.9% return over the “risk-free” rate in the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below.) Today’s revised estimate, which is based on data through last month, matches the projection in last month’s update.
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● ADP Reports Stronger-than-Expected US Feb Payroll Growth | WSJ
● Fed Beige Book: US expansion with varying wage growth | Bloomberg
● US mortgage applications fall 4.8%, despite rate drop | CNBC
● Eurozone retail sales climb for 3rd straight month | MarketWatch
● PMI: Eurozone economic growth at 13-mo low as France contracts | Markit
● PMI: Chinese service sector expands at weaker pace in Feb | Markit

US companies added 214,000 workers to payrolls last month, according to the ADP Employment Report for February. The news offers more support for thinking that the economic expansion is in no immediate danger of sliding into a recession. In fact, today’s numbers inspire a degree of upside revision for the near-term outlook.
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The US Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast has surged in recent days, albeit after reaching unusually low levels last month. Nonetheless, the rollercoaster of revising expectations rolls on, and this time there’s an upside bias bubbling. The spread between the nominal 10-year yield and its inflation-indexed counterpart reached 1.48% yesterday (Mar. 1), based on daily data from Treasury.gov. That’s still a low rate relative to the roughly 1.5%-2.5% range in recent years. But the latest pop marks a sharp increase from mid-February, when the market’s inflation forecast at one point dipped to 1.18%.
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● US ISM Mfg Index ticks up but still indicates contraction in Feb | RTT
● PMI: Weakest rise in US mfg output in Feb since Oc 2013 | Markit
● US construction spending up 1.5% in Jan | AP
● Eurozone Mfg PMI growth falls to 12-mo low in Feb | Markit
● Eurozone unemployment rate falls to 10.3% in Jan–a 4-1/2 yr low | BBC
● Global Mfg PMI signals stagnation in Feb | Markit
● Super Tuesday: Clinton, Trump win big; Cruz takes Tex; Rubio has 1st win | CNN
● Moody’s cuts China outlook, cites reform, fiscal risks | Reuters

The demand for safe assets dominated asset flows in February. The main beneficiary of the risk-off trade last month: foreign government bonds in developed markets. Citigroup’s World Gov’t Bond Index ex-US surged 4.0% in February (unhedged US dollar total return). The gain also pushed this slice of the fixed-income market into first place for the trailing one-year period with a 1.7% increase.
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● US pending home sales hit one-year low | Reuters
● Chicago PMI signals contraction of factory activity in Feb | MarketWatch
● Dallas Fed Index: Mfg Remains in Contraction in Texas | 24/7 Wall St
● Eurozone jobless rate dips to 10.3% in Jan | Reuters
● PMI: Eurozone mfg growth slows to 12-mo low in Feb | Markit
● China’s manufacturing PMI highlights sluggishness | MarketWatch
● Fed’s Dudley: US economic risks have increased | Reuters
● 3 reasons Warren Buffett is optimistic about US economy | CBS MW

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 197,000 (seasonally adjusted) in February over the previous month in tomorrow’s Wednesday’s update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a moderately lesser increase vs. January’s gain.
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