● NY Fed mfg index falls for 4th straight month in Nov | AP
● US consumers plan to spend more this Christmas | Gallup
● UK inflation still falling in Oct | Bloomberg
● ZEW: Economic sentiment in Germany rises in Nov | Reuters
● Limited impact on markets from Paris attacks | Reuters
● Measuring the economic costs of terrorism | NY Times
● France won’t meet deficit targets due to terrorism | MNI

The latest edition of The US Business Cycle Risk Report sports a new look and a broader mix of benchmarks for tracking the ebb and flow of the macro trend. Starting with yesterday’s edition, each issue now reviews the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Philly Fed’s ADS Business Conditions Index in addition to our usual suite of proprietary benchmarks. Take a look at the current issue here and find out why The US Business Cycle Risk Report is the new indispensable standard for systematically monitoring US macro risk. Click here for details on how to subscribe and stay up-to-date with cutting-edge intelligence on tracking recession risk.

US industrial production is expected to be rebound slightly, rising 0.1% in tomorrow’s October report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average prediction that sees a fractional rise contrasts with a 0.2% decline in September.
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A slightly lower US Dollar Index last week gave foreign bonds an edge among the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy ETFs. Inflation-indexed bonds in foreign markets led the way higher for the five days of trading through Friday, Nov. 13. The top performer for the week just passed: SPDR International Government Inflation-Protected Bond ETF (WIP), which gained 0.9%. In fact, the top-four ETF leaders last week for the major asset classes are in the foreign bond category.
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● US retail spending growth is weaker than expected in Oct | Reuters
● US consumer sentiment rises in November | CNBC
● US business inventories rise in Sep | Reuters
● Japan returns to recession in Q3 | RTT
● Eurozone Oct consumer inflation revised up to +0.1% YoY | Reuters

● The Great Surge: The Ascent of the Developing World
By Steven Radelet
Review via Publishers Weekly
Radelet, economic adviser to the president of Liberia, succeeds in making a possibly counterintuitive argument: notwithstanding the often depressing nature of news coverage of developing countries, this era has seen the most “progress among the global poor in the history of the world.” He has the statistics to back up this claim: for example, between 1990 and 2015, one billion people escaped “extreme poverty.” He cites similar data with respect to hunger and child deaths. Radelet does not contend that suffering has ended by any means, but his accessible and articulate presentation is likely to convince readers that the story of global development is more complex, and positive, than many believe.
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If you were expecting today’s retail sales report for October to deliver a blowout gain in line with the surprisingly strong rise in payrolls for last month, today’s release on consumer spending is a disappointment. It’s not terrible, but the monthly 0.1% advance in retail consumption is below expectations and a sign that it’s still reasonable to keep expectations in check for anticipating a sharp turnaround for the economy overall in the fourth quarter.
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