● German Manufacturing Returns To Positive Zone | RTT
● French Manufacturing Continues To Contract In October | RTT
● UK Factory Growth Unexpectedly Accelerates | Bloomberg
● China Oct PMIs point to cooling economic momentum | Reuters
● A Fed insider explains why the central bank is making a big mistake | Vox

The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to remain unchanged at 56.6 in tomorrow’s update for October vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The estimate is still well above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook remains firmly in growth territory for this benchmark of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector.
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● Dual Momentum Investing:
An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk
By Gary Antonacci
Review via Alpha Architect
If there is such a thing as a momentum investing “guru,” Gary Antonacci is that guru. He’s run the blog optimalmomentum.blogspot.com for a number of years, and has now published a book, “Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk”, that synthesizes his wide experience in momentum investing into a single approach, and makes it available to the investing public.
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Today’s US personal spending and income report for September fell short of projections. Economists overall were looking for a 0.3% rise in the headline income number, but the actual data showed a lesser 0.2% increase last month. Consumption fared worse, retreating by 0.2% vs. the 0.1% gain that the crowd anticipated via the consensus forecast according to Econoday.com. It’s fair to say that September was soft for S&I, but the comparisons look a bit brighter when we minimize the short-term noise and focus on the year-over-year trend. In fact, private-sector wages continue to expand at a robust annual pace. That doesn’t change the fact that the monthly data stumbled in September, but the big-picture analysis still leaves room for optimism.
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● German retail sales see biggest fall in more than seven years | Reuters
German retail sales posted their biggest monthly decline in more than seven years in September, data showed on Friday, a sign that consumers cannot be relied on to prop up Europe’s largest economy.
● BOJ shocks markets with more easing as inflation slows | Reuters
The Bank of Japan surprised global financial markets on Friday by expanding its massive stimulus spending in a stark admission that economic growth and inflation have not picked up as much as expected after a sales tax hike in April.
● Eurocoin Indicator Falls For Fourth Month | RTT
A measure of the current economic situation in the euro area declined for the fourth consecutive month in October, a survey by the Bank of Italy and the Centre for Economic Policy Research showed Friday.
● US Economy Grows at Steady Clip | Wall Street Journal
Military spending & drop in imports drive 3.5% GDP gain as global Headwinds gather
● German EU-harmonized inflation slows to 0.7% | MarketWatch
German consumer-price inflation unexpectedly slowed in October, the country’s statistics office said Thursday, an indication that the eurozone continues to face the risk of too-low inflation or deflation.
● Eurozone Oct Economic Sentiment Rises For First Month In Four | MNI
Eurozone economic sentiment rebounded in October, recording it first advance in four months and rising to just above its long-term average, data from the European Commission showed Thursday.

Tomorrow’s update on US personal consumption spending for September is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The prediction reflects a deceleration in growth relative to August’s 0.5% gain.
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The US economy grew faster than expected in this year’s third quarter, according to this morning’s “advance” GDP estimate for the July-through-September period. Economic activity expanded 3.5% in Q3, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports — comfortably above the consensus forecast’s 3.0% estimate, according to Econoday.com’s survey. Meanwhile, today’s weekly update on jobless claims continues to signal ongoing growth for the labor market. The numbers du jour aren’t terribly surprising if you’ve been following the macro updates recently, but the news is no less encouraging for anticipating that moderate growth for the US will persevere for the foreseeable future.
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It’s nearly Halloween, but the frightening rise in US stock market volatility earlier this month is looking less creepy at the moment. In particular, the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P 500 has tumbled substantially over the past week, settling at a level yesterday (Oct. 29) that prevailed before the sharp correction took a hefty bite out of equities in the first half of October. The descent in risk is a bullish sign, but it comes with caveats. Indeed, other measures of market volatility have yet to confirm the VIX’s drop. As a result, it’s premature to say that October’s menacing volatility signal was a false alarm about the potential for an extended run of the market’s horror show .
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● NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russia Air Activity in Europe | Wall Street Journal
Russian military aircraft conducted aerial maneuvers around Europe this week on a scale seldom seen since the end of the Cold War, prompting NATO jets to scramble in another sign of how raw East-West relations have grown.
● Fed’s Bond Buying Ends–Rates Could Stay Low for Years | Street.com
Six years after the Federal Reserve rode to the rescue during the financial crisis, the central bank is ending its bond-buying program in October.
● German Unemployment Unexpectedly Falls | Bloomberg
German unemployment unexpectedly declined in October in a sign of companies’ confidence in the underlying strength of Europe’s largest economy.
● Spanish economy grows for 5th quarter in a row | BusinessWeek
Spain’s economy grew by 0.5 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, its fifth consecutive quarterly growth.
● US loan applications to buy homes lowest since Feb | Reuters
U.S. mortgage applications to buy homes fell to their lowest level last week since February as interest rates on 30-year home loans edged up from the previous week’s 16-month trough, an industry group said on Wednesday.

If you’re pondering the allure of real estate investment trusts (REITs) these days, consider two attributes of late: strong performance vs. the US stock market and relatively high yields over Treasuries. As winning combinations go among asset classes at the moment, US REITs cast an attractive profile.
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