● Do You Need a Financial Adviser?
By Mark Nind
Summary via publisher, Memoir Publishing
While most financial advisers offer a valuable service to their clients, many people have stories about those who failed to understand their needs or were ignorant of useful products or important legislation. Yet blundering on without seeking the right advice can prove extremely costly. Mark Nind has worked in financial services for most of his working life and has seen the perils and pitfalls of investment planning from the points of view of the bank, the independent adviser and the customer. In this book he explains the financial adviser’s role clearly and objectively and gives valuable tips about when you should seek advice about what to do with your money, where you should go for it and how you should use
Private Payrolls Rise More Than Forecast In November
Private payrolls increased by 147,000 last month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reports. That represents a considerably slower rate of growth from October’s revised 189,000 jump, but today’s number beat expectations by a comfortable margin. The consensus forecast compiled by Briefing.com, for instance, projected a lesser gain of 120,000. Meanwhile, the jobless rate reportedly fell to 7.7%. I don’t pay much attention to this number—payrolls data is more informative for business cycle analysis. Nonetheless, it’s hard not to notice that unemployment slipped to the lowest level in nearly four years. There’s a lot of debate about the relevance of the unemployment numbers, but to the extent that this data tells us anything it’s the direction of the trend, and for now that seems to be moving in a productive direction: down.
Technical Analysis & Financial Advisors
More financial advisors are using technical analysis in their money management travels these days, including asset allocation. In the new issue of Financial Advisor, I profile the trend and ask some wealth managers why and how they’re using TA: (Re)Discovering Technical Analysis.
Jobless Claims Fall To Pre-Hurricane Levels
New filings for jobless benefits fell again last week, offering another statistical talking point to argue that the dramatic surge in new claims for the week through November 11 was a temporary effect from Hurricane Sandy. Since then, claims have dropped for three consecutive weeks. The overall decline in the last three reports is substantial, pushing last week’s claims data down to the range that prevailed before the storm hit, albeit on the high side of the pre-storm range. But for now, there’s quite a bit more confidence for asserting that the claims numbers again suggest that slow growth for the labor market remains a reasonable outlook.
Dueling Forecasts: ISM Manufacturing & Services Indexes
Yesterday’s update on the ISM Services Index delivered a positive counterpoint in the November estimate vs. the discouraging slide in the ISM Manufacturing Index. One of the indicators is feeding us misleading signals about the business cycle. The manufacturing index is warning, albeit mildly, that the economy is weakening. But the services data begs to differ.
November Job Growth Slows… Because Of Hurricane Sandy?
Private payrolls in the U.S. increased by 118,000 last month, according to the ADP Employment Report. As expected, that’s a slowdown from October’s 157,000 rise (on a seasonally adjusted basis). Many economists will chalk up the slower rate of growth to Hurricane Sandy’s negative influence. Maybe. For now, it’s a plausible argument. Nonetheless, today’s ADP number tells us to remain cautious on expecting anything other than a comparably lower rate of jobs growth when the Labor Department publishes the official November payrolls report on Friday.
Will The Housing Recovery Survive The Fiscal Follies?
What are the arguments for thinking that the U.S. economy will remain on a slow-growth course and avoid a new recession? Unfortunately, there are fewer sources of statistical support these days, but the strongest ones—relatively speaking—remain payrolls and real estate. Today’s estimate from ADP (scheduled for release at 8:15 am ET) is expected to post a slower rate of jobs growth for November, but not enough to challenge the notion that the economy is still growing. The nascent real estate revival is the other conspicuous point of optimism… if we can keep it.
A Long, Strange Season For Macro Analysis
Analyzing the business cycle in real time is a task that’s always threatening to lead us astray, but in the current climate the hazard may go into overdrive. All the usual gremlins are with us, but there are additional complicating factors to consider these days, including: the uncertainty and high-stakes poker of the fiscal cliff negotiations in Washington; a recession in Europe that coincides with a (dormant?) fiscal crisis on the Continent; and deciding how, or if, Hurricane Sandy’s lingering effects are distorting the incoming data.
ISM: Manufacturing Activity Contracts In November
An early peek at economic activity for November tells us to keep our optimism in check. The ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 49.5 last month, the first dip under the neutral 50 mark since August. In short, we have a new data point that turned negative for profiling the economy. Is it a robust sign that the economy’s tanking, or is this another head fake courtesy of Hurricane Sandy’s distortions on the economic trend? The answer—not to be confused with the speculation in the here and now—is waiting for us in the near-term future.
Major Asset Classes | November 2012 | Performance Review
The fiscal cliff is drawing closer in the US as the recession in Europe rolls on, but the major asset classes overall posted a modest gain for November. The Global Market Index (GMI) earned 0.8% last month and is up 9.8% on the year. The big winner in November: foreign stocks in developed markets as tracked by MSCI EAFE, which climbed 2.4% last month. But EAFE’s fixed-income counterpart (Citigroup World Government Bond Index ex-US) was on the leading edge of losses, closely followed by REITS—each posting 0.4% declines. Otherwise, the month-to-date numbers were red-ink free.