Microcap stocks soared last year, even by the inflated standards of the broad market. The CRSP Decile 10 Index (the smallest of the small in micro-cap land) surged more than 80% last year vs. a bit more than 26% for the S&P 500.
Why didn’t investors in funds targeting this slice of equities reap the lion’s share of the rewards? Rick Ferri of Portfolio Solutions explains the gap (hat tip to Mebane Faber’s World Beta blog). Ferri argues that microcap index funds “don’t exist, because micro-caps are too small for index funds and ETFs to invest in.”
We’ll have more to say on the subject in the near future in terms of what it means for multi-asset class investing. Meanwhile, you can read Ferri’s article at Forbes.com.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls promises (threatens?) to be a critical update on the labor market. Basically the question is, If not now, when?

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Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal warned that a “a treacherous landscape of potential trading problems” harasses the world of ETFs. Most of these problems are associated with liquidity. Some have it, some don’t. Identifying the haves, and the have-nots, is prudent way to start looking at ETFs. But the task is daunting, at least in the beginning of your search, because of the sheer number of products to review.
Sifting through the potential list of choices takes more time with each passing month. There are more than 900 ETFs, according to Morningstar Principia, and the list keeps growing. That’s good news–lots of choices. It’s also bad news because you have to sort through the list in search of investor friendly products. There are also hundreds of index mutual funds to consider, if you’re so inclined. Most of these choices aren’t worth your time for reasons including high expense ratios, insufficient liquidity, high tracking error and poor overall design, to name a few.

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Did you attend Davos this year? No? Neither did I. Next year, perhaps. Then again, maybe we’re not missing all that much by staying home. Why suffer airports and rubber chicken lunches in the digital age? Well, it’s true you can’t have a quiet chat with Mr. X over a scotch and soda via the web with the Swiss Alps in the background. On the other hand, everyone can afford the out-of-pocket expense for taking a peek as a long distance web voyeur.

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The December update on personal income and spending isn’t terribly informative. Disposable personal income rose 0.4% in December, modestly above the monthly average rise during 2009 (0.3%). Meanwhile, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in December, or slightly below average based on the monthly average for last year (0.3%). It all rounds out to a yawn in terms of what one month’s numbers tell us. Par for the course.

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January was a rough month for risky assets. For the first time since the financial crisis raged in late-2008, the red ink that spilled was broad and deep across the broad asset classes on a calendar-month basis. Bonds generally held their own in January, but stocks, REITs and commodities suffered sizable retreats.

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Unemployment in Europe is now at 10%, matching the jobless rate in the U.S. Does this undermine the argument in favor of European-style bigger government that’s more proactive in trying to minimize the perceived limits of capitalism? One response is that Europe didn’t do as much as the U.S. to mitigate the recession. For instance, the European Central Bank didn’t cut interest rates as quickly or as deeply as did the Fed. If the problem was a slow and weak monetary response, maybe the so-called friendlier face of capitalism in Europe isn’t all that helpful after all in the grand scheme of economic cycles. In that case, perhaps the lesson is that it’s best to let free markets bloom and intervene only when and if it’s necessary during financial panics a la Bagehot’s lender of last resort doctrine.

First, the good news. This morning’s release of the government’s initial estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is a blow-out number: +5.7%. That’s the highest annualized quarterly real (inflation-adjusted) rise in GDP since 2003 and it’s also up sharply from Q3’s 2.2% rise. In addition, the Q4 number exceeded what most economists were expecting, and most were predicting a healthy increase.

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Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was confirmed for a second term today in the Senate, albeit by a relatively thin margin: 70-30. That’s reportedly the “thinnest approval ever extended to a chairman in the central bank’s 96-year history.” Just a few days ago there was some question as to whether he would survive the populist political backlash that threatened to vote him out of his position as head of the central bank.
For the moment, Bernanke has won. The question is whether his victory will turn Pyrrhic. At least expectations are uncomplicated:
“Now that the Senate has confirmed him for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke has, or ought to have, a very simple agenda: improve confidence,” writes Newsweek’s Robert Samuelson. “That isn’t his job alone, of course. President Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner are hardly bit players. But what Bernanke does and says—how he projects himself and the Fed—matters a great deal, and he faces an exacting challenge.”

Professor John Cochrane offers his take on the financial crisis of 2008 in the current issue of the Cato Institute’s Regulation.
His basic argument: “the signature event of this financial crisis was the ‘run,’ ‘panic,’ ‘flight to quality,’ or whatever you choose to call it, that started in late September of 2008 and receded over the winter. Short-term credit dried up, including the normally straightforward repurchase agreement, inter-bank lending, and commercial papermarkets. If that panic had not occurred, it is likely that any economic contraction following the housing bust would have been no worse than the mild 2001 recession that followed the dot-com bust.”
Was that really the source of the crisis? Maybe, although no one really knows. This is economics, after all. Certainly there’s no shortage of competing notions of about what happened. But even if you don’t agree with Cocgrane 100%, he makes a number of salient points that, at the very least, demand consideration in the months and years ahead as the powers in Washington attempt to “fix” the system.

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