The media’s all a buzz with the question of whether Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will survive the political gauntlet and be reconfirmed. The latest chatter leans toward an affirmative answer, including this overt prediction from Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell yesterday: “”He’s going to have bi-partisan support and I would anticipate he will be confirmed.”
At the very least, it’s hard to imagine that the majority party would inflict a political wound on their President, who’s already on the defensive in the wake of last week’s election in Massachusetts. Obama’s bona fides are being questioned left and right (politically speaking and otherwise) on matters of finance and economics. There’s a chance to repair some of the political damage on Wednesday, when the President delivers the annual State of the Union speech. “He’s got to convince the American people that [jobs are] his number-one focus,” Jason Johnson, a professor of political science at Hiram College in Ohio, tells The Hill today. Call us crazy, but opening what surely would be a hornet’s nest at this late date with questions of Bernanke replacements doesn’t look all that savvy at this juncture.
QUANTITATIVELY MEASURED HOPE CAN BE DECEIVING…SOMETIMES
The Conference Board yesterday reported that its closely watched index of leading economic indicators (LEI) was up 1.1% in December. The LEI for the U.S. “increased sharply in December, and has risen steadily for nine consecutive months,” Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board, said in an accompanying press release.
MEASURING THE EMPLOYMENT TREND
Economist Bill Conerly brings some much-needed clarity to the task of analyzing the trend in the U.S. labor market. Yes, there’s still trouble ahead, but let’s at least be sensible when assessing the decade just passed.
TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING?
BCA Research yesterday made the case for seeing emerging market stocks as “fully priced” on an earnings basis. Or, if you prefer, they’re “no longer cheap.”
It doesn’t help that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index soared last year to the upper realms of bull market records, rising nearly 80% in 2009. A chart in the January issue of The Beta Investment Report, published earlier this month, made this point in a way that only graphics can:
Is any of this related to the recent weakness in emerging market equities and related funds, such as iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)? Bloomberg News today advises that emerging-market stocks are “heading for their steepest weekly decline since October, as commodity prices dropped amid concern higher interest rates in China and proposed U.S. banking reforms will slow economic recovery.”
STILL LOOKING FOR LOANS
A month ago we discussed why the dearth of loans is especially troublesome at this point in the economic cycle. The news that Fed Chairman talked today with Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid in an effort to change the state of frozen lending isn’t exactly encouraging, even though that’s exactly the goal. “I believe more pressure needs to be applied to banks to lend money to small businesses and keep more Americans in their homes,” said Reid said after his confab with the Fed head. You can lead a horse to water, but can you beat him over the head to make him drink? Meanwhile, at the other end of Pennsylvania Ave., the White House is trying to put a lid on big banks assuming “reckless risks.” So why isn’t any one smiling yet?
AN UNEXPECTED JUMP IN JOBLESS CLAIMS RAISES SOME FAMILIAR WORRIES
There are two ways to interpret this morning’s disappointing news on jobless claims for last week. One is that the jig is up and the economy’s set for a fresh round of trouble. The other is newly minted confirmation that the post-recession recovery this time really is going to arrive in fits and starts, take longer than usual, and deliver subpar performance for an unusually long time.
We’re still in the latter camp, as we have been for some time, although critics can rightly ask: What’s the difference in these two viewpoints? At the moment, precious little. Until and if we receive more encouraging news on the labor market, and soon, the jig may in fact be up. But not yet, or at least we don’t think so.
STIMULATING STIMULUS DEBATES
Was last year’s $787 billion fiscal stimulus too small? Or just ill-conceived? Or was it doomed to fail from the start? Or perhaps the money was spent too fast. Or too slow. At least it’ll be easier to access broadband in a few states.
A BEAR MARKET IN MYSTIQUE…
Warren Buffett has become more accessible over the years, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Some of our best friends actively seek out attention from the media. Still, it’s hard not to notice how things have changed. Once upon a time, a Buffett quote was a rare and wonderful thing. Now, he’s just one more talking head on TV. Oh, well. It’s the 21st century. And it’s really all about the money anyway, right?
THE BETA INVESTMENT REPORT: 1-YEAR OLD THIS MONTH
Our subscriber-only newsletter–The Beta Investment Report–is one year old this month. To celebrate, we’re offering all Capital Spectator readers a bonus issue with a paid annual subscription. That’s right, 13 issues for the price of 12. There’s never been a better time to hone your strategic investment intelligence. And now you can do it at a discount, albeit for a limited time.
Here’s how it works. Subscribe for 12 months at BetaInvestment.com. Once your subscription is confirmed, send us an email with the word “Bonus” in the headline, along with a reference to the date you subscribed, and we’ll add an extra issue to your subscription–no extra charge. (Even better, if you subscribe for 24 months, we’ll throw in 2 extra issues for free.)
But remember, this offer is only good through Jan. 31, 2010.
A FRESH LOOK AT SOME OLD HOPE FOR HOUSING
The housing market has been looking for a bottom for years. Has it finally located the floor? There’s a fresh glimmer of hope on that front via this morning’s update on new housing starts and building permits issued. Sort of.